AMZN = LONG @ 764.42.

hajimow said:
About my observation on the numbers of AMZN parcels in USPS trucks I should say:
Peter Lynch the best Fidelity fund manager says when he wanted to invest in Super cht, he actually went there many times and waited on purpose to see the traffic and then he invested.
The same thing happened to me when I had 4300 shares of SBUX just a couple of months ago. SBUX was going down but I did not change my mind on SBUX when I was seeing long queues on SBUX.Eventually it proved that I was right and I sold my shares with a good profit. I should also mention that I always sell weekly covered call on my shares to reduce loss or increase profit.
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Hey I did the same thing on CMG right after the IPO and GOOG early on... so I'm totally with ya.
But at least with SBUX, GOOG, and CMG... they were actually making money.
AMZN is a very hard model to understand. Albeit they rule the world now in retail.
Will they see $1000? Absolutely. But when?
I place stock in Eganons T/A... coupled with my personal belief that the overall markets are going to pullback a minimum of 5% very soon. The Trump rally was meant to be the Hillary rally. And reality is going to set in. Hillary was a known variable. Trump is as unknown a variable as they come.
Keep selling the calls though when the premiums are high. Smart.
 
vanzandt said:
You know what they say.... sell the news.
We all knew this would be the best season ever... the question becomes (and will be answered 1/26)... did they meet analysts expectations.
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That is true but I do not know what were the analysts expectations. The truth that I found is that the fund managers have lots of cash on the side and they would not spend lots of time to investigate and invest in the best stock that they can find. They will invest on Google, Facebook, AMZN, Apple, (so obvious ones) and if they do good, they get credit and if they do bad, many mutual funds would go down with them and they would not be blamed for low performance. With this fact, you can not fight with them by shorting 500 shares.
I do not know what will happen tomorrow but between two possibilities I would pick the first one:
1- AMZN will hit 1200 by next year
2- AMZN will hit $500 by next year
 
vanzandt said:
Hey I did the same thing on CMG right after the IPO and GOOG early on... so I'm totally with ya.
But at least with SBUX, GOOG, and CMG... they were actually making money.
AMZN is a very hard model to understand. Albeit they rule the world now in retail.
Will they see $1000? Absolutely. But when?
I place stock in Eganons T/A... coupled with my personal belief that the overall markets are going to pullback a minimum of 5% very soon. The Trump rally was meant to be the Hillary rally. And reality is going to set in. Hillary was a known variable. Trump is as unknown a variable as they come.
Keep selling the calls though when the premiums are high. Smart.
More...
AMZN was trading at around $35 range in 2004 to 2006 (I am not sure about the exact time). Suddenly it popped to $50 and I shorted 400 shares and I was very stubborn and eventually I covered it at $100 in a few months !!.
Do not evaluate AMZN based on their profit. Price them based on their popularity, customer's trust and growth. Everyone trusts AMZN in terms of customer service. It is like you worship your best football player no matter he is a child abuser, wife beater.
 
My gut feelings says the stock will close above $800 by this Friday. I have no analysis to prove it. Just a gut feeling that can easily be wrong. Now it is trading $772.48
 
hajimow said:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/27/pf/amazon-shoppers-bought-holiday-season/index.html
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All of this has been known for at least a week or 2. It is already factored into the price yet it still has trouble breaking above the downtrendline. Some damage to my thesis of AMZN falling was done today by breaking above $774.39 even if momentarily. Although I expected a slight rebound today and tomorrow but I did not expect one to $774. However, the chart still shows price compression and poised for a BIG move one way or another. Usually these price patterns breakout at about 2/3 through the formation but we seem to be forming a spear point here. Today was not the >2% move I am waiting for. I think when it happens we will ALL know it. I am keeping my stop at $778.53 as my line in the sand and it will remain there until the BIG move happens. This allows the market to set a BULL TRAP and it should still not stop me out. I think the market feels a bit tired here and will likely have a small pullback soon. We will see soon enough. If I am wrong,...well you win some you lose some, and I have kept my loss small.

AMZN.png
 
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