Black Swan Event:
Step 1)Trump continues to piss off China by talking to Taiwan.
Step 2)Xi Jinping calls Kim Jong-un in secret and tells him to amass troops North of 38th parallel.
Step 3)DPRK moves 400,000 troops South and parks them just North of DMZ.
Step 4)S. Korea freaks the F out and calls Trump.
Step 5) Trump calls China
Step 6) China says with a smirk... "they're their own country, we have no control over them". (yeah right)
Step 7) Trump is in a quagmire. Markets sell off in a big way.
Step 8(a) Trump backs down and tells Taiwan its "A One China policy as far as we're concerned".
Step 8(b) Trump steps on his crank and the PDRK does what it has always wanted to do... take over Seoul with its 1,000,000 plus active duty soldiers, 850,000 plus reservists and re-unite the Korean Peninsula.
8(b) is not an option and won't happen... but the markets will TANK either way.
Step 9) China quietly gloats. Trump learns his first lesson in the realities of international diplomacy.
Its already starting......