AMZN = LONG @ 764.42.

destriero said:
This sh!t is hilarious. Really... you see trucks filled with Amazon packages? Assume it costs Amazon $1.18 to have that package delivered based upon their current contracts. What if AMZN lost $0.45 on the item? Like swim goggles for little Suzy for her swim class. Sure, AMZN sells a lot of 'em, but taking a $1.63 loss on millions of sh!t plastic junk?

How does AMZN make money on shipping a loss? VOLUME.

I can't imagine a more crowded equity buy than AMZN into the Holidays. It's just so amateur. Like Homer not selling his pumpkin futures before Halloween.
More...

Just for giggles I looked at some fundamental info on AMZN. I was floored when I saw their margin on every sale is 0.3%. But my reasons for shorting remain for TA reasons.

Vanzandt I am not sure we will have a Black Swan event but if we do well that is what stop losses are for. Also realize that with each and every trendline channel resistance line broken we just expand or trade in a new trend channel. Look at the chart below and see that we have broken above a MAJOR resistance line spanning back 20 years. I suspect this is a BULL TRAP and we will fall below that line and drop to around 2200 on S&P. Markets are a bit stretched so to expect a slight pullback is not unreasonable.

SPX.png
At that point we either bounce and retest resistance again or drop further. If we maintain that break higher then we are in mostly uncharted territory and no one knows where those channels will take us but the upside target would be around 2400 based on this chart.
 
destriero said:
This sh!t is hilarious. Really... you see trucks filled with Amazon packages? Assume it costs Amazon $1.18 to have that package delivered based upon their current contracts. What if AMZN lost $0.45 on the item? Like swim goggles for little Suzy for her swim class. Sure, AMZN sells a lot of 'em, but taking a $1.63 loss on millions of sh!t plastic junk?

How does AMZN make money on shipping a loss? VOLUME.

I can't imagine a more crowded equity buy than AMZN into the Holidays. It's just so amateur. Like Homer not selling his pumpkin futures before Halloween.
More...

The facts that you are saying has been discussed for years and is a losing fact or idea. Based on your facts, AMZN should worth $17 and not $760. What you say is not important, what market acts is important. AMZN is priced based on its market domination and not valuation.
 
hajimow said:
The facts that you are saying has been discussed for years and is a losing fact or idea. Based on your facts, AMZN should worth $17 and not $760. What you say is not important, what market acts is important. AMZN is priced based on its market domination and not valuation.
More...

One one hand you're arguing that the full trucks are a bullish sign, without any notion of the microecon 101. Like Solyndra selling each PV cell at an 18% loss.

So you're going long bc you myopic view of packages on trucks equates to a buy signal. Why not simply buy UPS as it is not operating cartage at a loss. Amazon is operating their shopping service at under 1% margins, overall. Imagine the variance during the holiday season. Magnifying a loss (increasing scale) does not magically turn it into a gain.

Based on your "packages on trucks" it should be worth what? Please stop embarrassing yourself.

Amazon Cloud sees more competition every month. Their phone was a dog turd. I have Prime and watch the video on occasion.

Amazon going into insurance is retarded. At least in terms of the investor in the shares. You don't enter finance businesses where the multiples are 1/100th of your core operating assets. Underwriting with the worst P/S ratio in the entire industry.

So basically what you're saying is that AMZN is actually a short, bc:

1) The are selling even MOAR products at a loss.
2) They are going into the worst form of underwriting possible (auto) which trades at a 12 multiple.

What they should be doing is buying DISH Network. Bezos, wake-up. Your currency is 20x more valuable than any target you could possibly be interested in buying. You have some content, but can't blow NFLX out of the water without distribution. Amazon ads on the DISH ticker. Promotion notifications. Huge synergies and you have the only remaining distribution asset in terrestrial.

The shares are worth $900 in a week of announcing the merger.

You MUST BUY DISH.
 
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destriero said:
One one hand you're arguing that the full trucks are a bullish sign, without any notion of the microecon 101. Like Solyndra selling each PV cell at an 18% loss.

So you're going long bc you myopic view of packages on trucks equates to a buy signal. Why not simply buy UPS as it is not operating cartage at a loss. Amazon is operating their shopping service at under 1% margins, overall. Imagine the variance during the holiday season. Magnifying a loss (increasing scale) does not magically turn it into a gain.

Based on your "packages on trucks" it should be worth what? Please stop embarrassing yourself.

Amazon Cloud sees more competition every month. Their phone was a dog turd. I have Prime and watch the video on occasion.

Amazon going into insurance is retarded. At least in terms of the investor in the shares. You don't enter finance businesses where the multiples are 1/100th of your core operating assets. Underwriting with the worst P/S ratio in the entire industry.

So basically what you're saying is that AMZN is actually a short, bc:

1) The are selling even MOAR products at a loss.
2) They are going into the worst form of underwriting possible (auto) which trades at a 12 multiple.

What they should be doing is buying DISH Network. Bezos, wake-up. Your currency is 20x more valuable than any target you could possibly be interested in buying. You have some content, but can't blow NFLX out of the water without distribution. Amazon ads on the DISH ticker. Promotion notifications. Huge synergies and you have the only remaining distribution asset in terrestrial.

The shares are worth $900 in a week of announcing the merger.

You MUST BUY DISH.
More...

Study up on Charlie Ergen in the areas regarding politcs, religion, and Wall Street. No flippin way he'd get in bed with Bezos. That would be like Trump firing KellyAnn whats her name and hiring Elizabeth Warren.

But it makes for a hell of a rumor, I'll give you that
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Ergen
 
Black Swan Event:

Step 1)Trump continues to piss off China by talking to Taiwan.
Step 2)Xi Jinping calls Kim Jong-un in secret and tells him to amass troops North of 38th parallel.
Step 3)DPRK moves 400,000 troops South and parks them just North of DMZ.
Step 4)S. Korea freaks the F out and calls Trump.
Step 5) Trump calls China
Step 6) China says with a smirk... "they're their own country, we have no control over them". (yeah right)
Step 7) Trump is in a quagmire. Markets sell off in a big way.
Step 8(a) Trump backs down and tells Taiwan its "A One China policy as far as we're concerned".
Step 8(b) Trump steps on his crank and the PDRK does what it has always wanted to do... take over Seoul with its 1,000,000 plus active duty soldiers, 850,000 plus reservists and re-unite the Korean Peninsula.

8(b) is not an option and won't happen... but the markets will TANK either way.

Step 9) China quietly gloats. Trump learns his first lesson in the realities of international diplomacy.
 
Been rethinking. I think price could be very volatile soon and do not want to get whipsawed out. Will keep original plan when I started this trade and keep my stop at $778.53 but still plan to add to Position if I get another sell signal.
 
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