AMZN = LONG @ 764.42.
- Thread starter eganon69
- Start date
Funny you should mention that, I was going to ask you
.... there are lots of T/A "studies" that one can add to their charts and study. Here's a list of at least 60 https://www.tradingtechnologies.com...tor-definitions/list-of-technical-indicators/ but ALL of these are derived from that one stock.
Why hasn't someone figured out how to incorporate via some super advanced algorithm.... some kind of generic ...template(study).... that looks at the volumes and action of the S&P in aggregate .... and applies it to an individual stock in addition to the other stock specific T/A tools that technicians use for an individual stock. Does that make sense?
So like above for AMZN,..... in your complete analysis you would also have a paragraph that incorporates.... and is shown on the chart (via line or bars or acc/dist or whatever)..... as to how the T/A of the broader markets play into THIS individual stock. I'm probably not explaining myself well.
Hmmmm. Let me try it this way.... say everything you said above on a T/A basis says stock XYZ should go down but what if the S&P is setting up for a huge move up in the other direction.... there should be some kind of study that encompasses the bigger picture but is tailored to the individual stock. The best way I can describe it is a generic template that is derived from ALL the market trends, and then placed on top of an individual stock.
Instead of doing all the T/A on one stock, and then just sticking your finger in the air for general market direction to see if you should make the trade or not.
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TA is like predicting the weather based on tools and indicators of wind speed, barometric pressure, etc. However, what you are describing to predict the direction of the move and strength of the move based on general overall market sentiment is kind of like predicting the weather in Florida based on the overall weather through the the entire US or World. It doesnt work that way. Predicting a direction or move on a stock is more related to the sector in general. Just like gold/gold miners does not necessarily move with the market. So if I am playing a particular stock I ONLY care about the sector and what the strength of the sector is. I try,....but does not always happen to pic the BEST stock in a particular sector I am trading. Just like the entire region of South Eastern US is sunny but I am trying to predict the weather ONLY in Miami Fl
By the way, the breakdown today, although it was not explosive is becoming more Bearish for AMZN. I will post another explanation of a likely move next week. But so far my thesis from Last Night appears to be taking shape and at least the first leg drop to $730ish will likely play out exactly as described. I will show more evidence later this weekend.
Happy Holidays,... I hope everyone was able to profit from my Early GIFT last night.
By the way, the breakdown today, although it was not explosive is becoming more Bearish for AMZN. I will post another explanation of a likely move next week. But so far my thesis from Last Night appears to be taking shape and at least the first leg drop to $730ish will likely play out exactly as described. I will show more evidence later this weekend.
Happy Holidays,... I hope everyone was able to profit from my Early GIFT last night.
Just to update where we stand. There was no huge explosive move today but I think it is still probable soon. Despite the trend line break we have held a support area around $755 (horizontal red line) BUT,...we are forming a Head and Shoulders TOP at this very right edge of the MAJOR rising trend line support that goes all the way back to Feb 2016 lows. This COULD be forming a BEAR TRAP where the bears (like me right now) get caught putting on short positions and we break back higher. But I doubt that is the case here. It looks to me like we dropped below the major support line (rising green line) but just barely. I think the energy of the price compression has yet to be fully released. I think with light volume the next few days we will see a slight rise back up to test that broken support and a curl up in prices to around $768-$770 range. THIS will likely curl over and form the second right shoulder in about 2-3 days. Notice the far left shoulder formed a high about $768 in about 2 trading days,....the same level I am expecting in the next few days to end the year. I suspect we will end the year on Dec. 30 at nearly today's exact closing price. IF the 2 day rise and curl over occurs like I suspect then I will have a 2nd sell signal and will ADD 0.25% to my short position. Yes this will be adding to a THEN losing position but I am aware of that and willing to take that small additional risk because I think the payoff could be so great. At THAT point I will be risking 1% of my account on this trade. Also notice that a projected target price of a Head & Shoulder formation is the height of the Head. The Head is about $28 difference from high to low and subtract that from the neck line ($754-$28= $726) CLOSE ENOUGH. The EMA 200 is currently $728 and horizontal support is about $728-$730. SO, that is more evidence of a LIKELY support bounce and FIRST target of the down move. That bounce will likely curl up to test the H & S broken neck line around $755. Notice that will correspond with the DOWN TREND line (Falling red line) in early January. That's where price will then have to decide whether it will continue sideways in a consolidation channel between $730-$780 OR break down further. I am betting breakdown further to the TARGET ZONE $640ish by the end of February 2017. That's a HUGE 15% WIN on a SHORT from $760 level (with RISK:REWARD of 1:6.5).....IF I am right.
Of course I realize this is a VERY detailed and SPECIFIC analysis of what will likely occur. It can change and as it changes I will update. For now remaining short and looking to add to my position.
Happy Holidays to anyone still reading my TA rant.
Eganon
This is most DEFINITELY NOT "fear of being long". I trade what I see and as the trade changes I change. Time will tell if I am right..... I have learned to check my emotions. Anyone that has read any of my prior posts/threads in the last several months would see I have been a raging BULL and more often than not I have been correct every step of the way (except for my GOOGL and LVS trade).
One more thing,...because I have made this such a public trade (which I rarely do) I have decided to evaluate this trade from multiple TA angles including ones I rarely use. ALL methods I am familiar with suggest there is a DOWNWARD bias with a >2% move in one day still coming soon.
My stop was at $778.53 and now this move has been validated down with yesterdays price action. The move will REMAIN a downward bias unless the RIGHT SHOULDER high is broken. Breaking that high of $774.39 WILL INVALIDATE this move. Tha would suggest this is a BEAR TRAP. But I dont think it is. Therefore, moving my stops to $776.53 and will tighten if we break today's low.
I am the king of subtle tells. Just because you see USPS delivering on Sunday does not mean the consumer is strong.
1/26/17 will be a market moving event. Across the board. Sure, everyone is using AMZN... but I suspect as a a whole, encompassing bricks and mortar, and AMZN.... we are finally going to see what is real. Americans are tapped out.
Remember that 800 point sell-off the night Trump won? This is not Brexit.
We are going below 18K on the dow.
My stock picks may be wrong intraday, but my macro is NEVER wrong.
I am currently Bearish on AMZN and said above that I see sell signals but I didnt say I see overwhelming SHORT signals. Sell to me just means take profits and raise cash for reloading.
Right now I have one SHORT and one LONG position and I am otherwise in CASH.
Sorry but I dont see us going to Dow 18k.
Trade what you see,
Eganon
EG....
All things being equal, of course we will not see DOW 18K. We will slowly grind upward I would suspect.
But here's the deal... this market is on hair trigger to sell-off. Valuations are at an all time high. Look what happened when the Russian Ambassador got assassinated last week. The markets bounced back sure, but only because the big players knew within minutes it was a non-event.
When I say we'll see 18K, that's me saying another black swan event is coming. What, I have no idea. But you can bank that within 60 days of Jan 20th, Trump is going to rock the world with something completely unexpected that will send jitters down the spine of Wall Street. Or something very ugly may happen before then.
Keep riding the wave... but I would NOT be all in long betting anything north of 20K is a given. The world is ugly and I suspect its going to get uglier.
Cheery thought for Xmas I know, ....but it is what it is.
All things being equal, of course we will not see DOW 18K. We will slowly grind upward I would suspect.
But here's the deal... this market is on hair trigger to sell-off. Valuations are at an all time high. Look what happened when the Russian Ambassador got assassinated last week. The markets bounced back sure, but only because the big players knew within minutes it was a non-event.
When I say we'll see 18K, that's me saying another black swan event is coming. What, I have no idea. But you can bank that within 60 days of Jan 20th, Trump is going to rock the world with something completely unexpected that will send jitters down the spine of Wall Street. Or something very ugly may happen before then.
Keep riding the wave... but I would NOT be all in long betting anything north of 20K is a given. The world is ugly and I suspect its going to get uglier.
Cheery thought for Xmas I know, ....but it is what it is.
This sh!t is hilarious. Really... you see trucks filled with Amazon packages? Assume it costs Amazon $1.18 to have that package delivered based upon their current contracts. What if AMZN lost $0.45 on the item? Like swim goggles for little Suzy for her swim class. Sure, AMZN sells a lot of 'em, but taking a $1.63 loss on millions of sh!t plastic junk?
How does AMZN make money on shipping a loss? VOLUME.
I can't imagine a more crowded equity buy than AMZN into the Holidays. It's just so amateur. Like Homer not selling his pumpkin futures before Halloween.