amateurs have no chance

[maxinger]

Amateurs always have a choice

to follow the big boys early (which is very wise) ,

to follow the big boys very late ( which is very foolish),

or to persistently go against the big boys ( which is kamikazae trading).

 

[sillyw10]

Don't project your "skills" on other people. I daytrade for over 2 decades, first stocks, then forex and since 1995 only futures.
You clearly have no clue what is possible in a good combination of leverage and compounding.

With 10K you can trade 6 contracts with the standard intraday margin of $1,650.
6 contracts at 2900 and $50 a points represents $870,000. The only problem is to be able to manage that without having accidents. And that's the problem for 99% of daytraders.

I don't trade for a few hundreds dollars a day.

"where the real money is to be made" depends on your skills. I know people who have to put their money in a savings account to be able to make real money.

you should team up with tradergod..it really is amazing how human behaviour keeps repeating over and over..doing the same old dumb thing day after day..and then they wonder why they really get nowhere..as I said..cannon fodder to be maintained at any cost..and boy have they done a good job of it!

 

[sle]

fundamental valuation wise, again, imagine if the 10 year yield doubles from 2.5 to 5, bonds will need to collapse by 50%?

Lol, what? Where did you get 50%?

250 bps of yield change * 8ish duration ~= 20% change in price

 

[dozu888]

Lol, what? Where did you get 50%?

250 bps of yield change * 8ish duration ~= 20% change in price

Yield = coupon/price

Coupon doesn’t change.

 

[Magic]

Seems like you were thinking of yield only and didn't even consider the return of principal aspect before blurting that statement out.

When someone says "bonds will crash 50%".. it's obviously implied that [value of] is being discussed.

You come across as a pretty zealous perma-bull. Usually it works out alright for you guys in the long run as long as you don't over-leverage, but the lack of nuance and thoughtfulness stands out to people that make a more serious study of the markets.

Imo if you want to optimize from here you need to think a lot more about other dimensions like risk, correlations, etc. rather than just yield / forward earnings. The market isn't stupid.. bonds are priced relative to stocks the way they are for very good reasons.. you seem to think there is a massive inferiority in the asset class at present and that is not a very rational belief.

 

[sle]

Yield = coupon/price

Coupon doesn’t change.

Dude, that's current yield. The bond price responds to yield to maturity (that's why duration matters).

PS. It's hilarious that this is happening in a thread named "amateurs have no chance"

 

[dozu888]

Dude, that's current yield. The bond price responds to yield to maturity (that's why duration matters).

PS. It's hilarious that this is happening in a thread named "amateurs have no chance"

yeah.. I mostly just look at the 10 year..

 

[schweiz]

you should team up with tradergod..it really is amazing how human behaviour keeps repeating over and over..doing the same old dumb thing day after day..and then they wonder why they really get nowhere..as I said..cannon fodder to be maintained at any cost..and boy have they done a good job of it!

You did not steal your nickname "silly"...

You have no information about me or my trading results but yet you are so smart that you can tell me who I am and how bad I am in trading.

"It really is amazing how human behaviour keeps repeating over and over..doing the same old dumb thing day after day..and then they wonder why they really get nowhere.."

Indeed,losers who only can repeat what is impossible (according to them) and how 99% are losers.
No wonder profitable traders don't post on ET anymore.

You don't even understand that stocks are not really the best thing for daytrading. That tells all about you as an "expert". People who agree with me are by (your) definition idiots, losers, fake...

It is ironic that this website is called ELITE traders. LOL.

The biggest risk factor or cause of failure in trading is the trader. Not the leverage or anything else.

This is exactly right. You need a $100k account to day trade stocks, but with futures $20k will do fine. That allows you to do with up to 3-4 ES contracts and 3 NQ contracts.....not that I condone that sort of leverage.

 

[ironchef]

Don't project your "skills" on other people. I daytrade for over 2 decades, first stocks, then forex and since 1995 only futures.
You clearly have no clue what is possible in a good combination of leverage and compounding.

With 10K you can trade 6 contracts with the standard intraday margin of $1,650.
6 contracts at 2900 and $50 a points represents $870,000. The only problem is to be able to manage that without having accidents. And that's the problem for 99% of daytraders.

I don't trade for a few hundreds dollars a day.

"where the real money is to be made" depends on your skills. I know people who have to put their money in a savings account to be able to make real money.

Why gave up day trade stocks and forex and why futures? I know you are going to say you are more profitable trading future but why?

 

[ironchef]

No wonder profitable traders don't post on ET anymore.

You just contradicted yourself: you do.

Have a good day.