amateurs have no chance

[srinir]

What is so mysterious. Yield = coupon / price

It is mysterious. You are not eating yield, show me the price of the bond falling by 50%.

 

[padutrader]

You are right, for me day trading was too difficult so I ended up swing trading and migrated to swing trading options full time.

the advantage of markets is that you can fit your personality to whatever you wish in the markets; try doing that in main street where you have to dance to whatever tune your bosses sing.
i trade in a way no one in the world does...and maybe that is why i lose money for 10 years....but the market allows it :does not call me a moron an imbecile or a nut case like many at ET and my wife does

 

[dozu888]

It is mysterious. You are not eating yield, show me the price of the bond falling by 50%.

ok there is the principle portion of it, so you do get $100 back at maturity.... but the 'yield producing portion' is reversely proportional to the yield.

say today the yield is x, and face value $100 is selling at $100+a; in 10 years the $100 is expected to worth b due to the inflation expectation.... so 100+a-b is the 'yield producing' portion of the bond value.... and this portion is reversely proportional to the yield.

 

[srinir]

ok there is the principle portion of it, so you do get $100 back at maturity.... but the 'yield producing portion' is reversely proportional to the yield.

say today the yield is x, and face value $100 is selling at $100+a; in 10 years the $100 is expected to worth b due to the inflation expectation.... so 100+a-b is the 'yield producing' portion of the bond value.... and this portion is reversely proportional to the yield.

Expected inflation expectation is already priced into the bond.

Bond math is pretty straight forward. For approximation, you can use duration of the bond to figure out price of the bond, which @sle was alluding to. Take your example of 10 year bond you bought yesterday yielding 2.5%. For some reason interest rate doubled today to 5%. Then take the duration of the 10 year bond, which is approximately 8 years and multiply by the change in rates. So the price falls 8*2.5%, approximately 20%.

You can work out exact price in excel to get the exact value using PRICE function.

Increase in rates is not that bad for investors, since you reinvest the coupon at higher rates.

 

[IamaMars]

There is always a chance for any amateur to beat a pro. You need to find right correct angle to work with. Forex is quite dependant on the market data other people and major news outlets release and manipulate it with. Just play more shorts if you don't have lot to invest.

 

[ironchef]

the advantage of markets is that you can fit your personality to whatever you wish in the markets; try doing that in main street where you have to dance to whatever tune your bosses sing.
i trade in a way no one in the world does...and maybe that is why i lose money for 10 years....but the market allows it :does not call me a moron an imbecile or a nut case like many at ET and my wife does

1. In real life, we vote with our feet: Change boss/job/location if we don't like it.

2. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expect different results.

 

[sle]

ok there is the principle portion of it, so you do get $100 back at maturity.... but the 'yield producing portion' is reversely proportional to the yield.

say today the yield is x, and face value $100 is selling at $100+a; in 10 years the $100 is expected to worth b due to the inflation expectation.... so 100+a-b is the 'yield producing' portion of the bond value.... and this portion is reversely proportional to the yield.

When you buy S&P you don't just care about it's dividend yield but look at the total return (oh, "the stocks rallied 20% in a year", not "the div yield is now 10bps lower"). Same way, when you buy bonds it's the total return that matters. If the 10 year yield gaps up 250 basis points, total return is approximately ~20 points, not 50%.

 

[dozu888]

When you buy S&P you don't just care about it's dividend yield but look at the total return (oh, "the stocks rallied 20% in a year", not "the div yield is now 10bps lower"). Same way, when you buy bonds it's the total return that matters. If the 10 year yield gaps up 250 basis points, total return is approximately ~20 points, not 50%.

ok I hear you.

total return does matter... but what I am talking about is what direction is the 'gravitational pull' for the price of stocks vs. bonds, at their current yields, which will result in the total return eventually.

 

[birdman]

Every master artist was first an amateur.

 

[schweiz]

Every master artist was first an amateur.

But most amateurs remain ... amateurs.