Am I Wasting My Time?

[ironchef]

I don't think one needs to be a good trader.
I'm not a good trader as such but I have a good (imo) strategy which compensates for lack of having a brilliant quick sharp mind and memory which I lack.

You are too modest.

I have never came across a good trader with a losing strategy, negative expectancy and still make money.

 

[007Arb]

Trading is like any other profession requiring a specific mindset and skills. There are also no shortcuts. Like any other profession it will take years of study and hands on experience. It is a cumulative process that requires a commitment over time in which you progress in stages from novice to expert. If you can't cut it part time building up your trading capital you sure aren't going to make it full time. I didn't venture into full time trading until I had accumulated $300,000 in profits from part time. Much to my surprise, after initially building up capital daytrading stock index futures and then progressing to trading tech and small cap growth funds, I found my most consistent and largest profits came from trading bond funds - junk, emerging markets, and recently securitized. All traders eventually find their trading niche.

 

[themickey]

.....I have never came across a good trader with a losing strategy, negative expectancy and still make money.

Perhaps think of trading to be similar to artistic or non artistic painters.
'Painter A' can spontaneously create a work of art on canvas using pure talent.
'Painter B' paints by numbers on a piece of paper bought at Walmarts, nevertheless, 'Painter B' still does a fine job because maybe he's been doing this sort thing every weekend for years.
'Painter B' is me with algos. Just following the numbers.

 

[Bugsy]

I wanted to post this question here. Might be a stupid question, but just trying to look at this from a realistic perspective.

Am I wasting my time chasing the "trade for a living" dream?

I've done countless hours or research and it seems that the only people making real money in this industry are selling their systems or selling their mentoring and coaching services.

Additionally, I took a step back and thought about the potential outcomes and none of them really seem to add up either. The best-case scenario to me would look like I make several thousand for all the time and energy put into it, and that might not even be realistic.

- Trading with only $100k of capital is not even close enough to potentially trade for a living
- No path to raise real money from outside investors in the US with all the SEC red tape.
- No track record
- Lastly and most importantly, I feel that there is barely any edge out there for the retail trader. With all the competition in the market, I find it very hard to believe anybody out there truly makes an income from just trading for a living.

I started my trading education path back in 2011 up until about 2016 then life came around, but recently I've been coming back to the drawing board but this time around knowing what I know now, I am wondering if this is even a realistic path to go down or if I should just stop now and focus my time on something that could pay off more instead of going down the rabbit hole.

Again, this might be stupid, and I am sure I will get a lot of "noob thinks he is going to make millions overnight" or "haven't even traded yet and is already going to quit" type replies but I'm just trying to look at this from a realistic and logical path this time around.

Thanks!

In my experience the best traders are those who enjoy the skill. The money is just a measuring stick of their success. Like any skill, profession, trade, hobby, or endeavor, the best are those who enjoy it for the challenge itself, and not for what they can get out of it. If you are only in something for the money then you will only be blown around anytime the next "opportunity for riches" presents itself.

Napoleon Hill continually beat the term "Definiteness of Purpose" into your mind in his books. Putting everything into being the best at one thing, and never giving up through all of your failures to reach that goal. Most people with that type of commitment would have to enjoy the skill or business thereof itself, even to the point of risking total defeat, failure, and ruin again and again. The thought of breaking their entire investment capital would be secondary to their absolute need to achieve their goals.

You mentioned you were into it until "life came around." Life comes around for every person in the history of human civilization. The difference is the successful people are the ones who were so committed to "definiteness of purpose" that that was life. They refused to give up no matter what the hurdles, no matter how many times they failed, no matter how many times they went broke, no matter what the cost. If you want to be successful at anything then you have to be prepared to pay the price, no matter what the cost.

 

[ironchef]

Perhaps think of trading to be similar to artistic or non artistic painters.
'Painter A' can spontaneously create a work of art on canvas using pure talent.
'Painter B' paints by numbers on a piece of paper bought at Walmarts, nevertheless, 'Painter B' still does a fine job because maybe he's been doing this sort thing every weekend for years.
'Painter B' is me with algos. Just following the numbers.

I like to know which Walmart sells your algos so I can go buy a copy and trade by number.

 

[smallfil]

A lot of the great traders failed multiple times before they got it right. Nicolas Darvas was one of them. He continued to fail while, continuing to dance. That was his occupation but, his passion was trading stocks. He never stopped trying to figure it out and then, some. Finally, he developed his box theory and made millions of off it.

 

[James.DeGori]

First understand that you are posing the question in a forum well populated with losers and trolls. Are you wasting your time? That's entirely up to you. I've been doing this for over 20 years and know and have known many traders who make a lot of money trading although not nearly as many who have failed.

First, you need to thoroughly understand the nature of price development. Books and seminars can help but true understanding comes from countless hours of focused observation of price discovery. Given that hard earned understanding, you can develop or adapt strategies based on that understanding. You must then test these ideas, preferably both through back and forward testing. You need to know what your risk reward scenario as well as odds that a trade will work. From that work, you need to develop a defined trade plan with attendant rules which YOU MUST FOLLOW. You need to know your edge, not only conceptually but mathematically.

Most will not do the above but of those who do, many will fail due to the instability to behave with the discipline needed. The behavior is common to losers, adding to losers (not building positions which is another thing but rather in hopes the trade will turn around). Cutting gainers too short, impulse or revenge trading etc. etc.. You have to not only know what your weaknesses are (ditch the bloody ego) but do what is necessary to rid yourself of them. BTW 100k is plenty to start with and certainly less with a proven track record of trading small size until both confidence and competence are achieved. To repeat, most will not get there and whether you do is up to you.

Speedo, What a great reply.

 

[Steve Alexander]

I wanted to post this question here. Might be a stupid question, but just trying to look at this from a realistic perspective.

Am I wasting my time chasing the "trade for a living" dream?

I've done countless hours or research and it seems that the only people making real money in this industry are selling their systems or selling their mentoring and coaching services.

Additionally, I took a step back and thought about the potential outcomes and none of them really seem to add up either. The best-case scenario to me would look like I make several thousand for all the time and energy put into it, and that might not even be realistic.

- Trading with only $100k of capital is not even close enough to potentially trade for a living
- No path to raise real money from outside investors in the US with all the SEC red tape.
- No track record
- Lastly and most importantly, I feel that there is barely any edge out there for the retail trader. With all the competition in the market, I find it very hard to believe anybody out there truly makes an income from just trading for a living.

I started my trading education path back in 2011 up until about 2016 then life came around, but recently I've been coming back to the drawing board but this time around knowing what I know now, I am wondering if this is even a realistic path to go down or if I should just stop now and focus my time on something that could pay off more instead of going down the rabbit hole.

Again, this might be stupid, and I am sure I will get a lot of "noob thinks he is going to make millions overnight" or "haven't even traded yet and is already going to quit" type replies but I'm just trying to look at this from a realistic and logical path this time around.

Thanks!

I wanted to post this question here. Might be a stupid question, but just trying to look at this from a realistic perspective.

Am I wasting my time chasing the "trade for a living" dream?

I've done countless hours or research and it seems that the only people making real money in this industry are selling their systems or selling their mentoring and coaching services.

Additionally, I took a step back and thought about the potential outcomes and none of them really seem to add up either. The best-case scenario to me would look like I make several thousand for all the time and energy put into it, and that might not even be realistic.

- Trading with only $100k of capital is not even close enough to potentially trade for a living
- No path to raise real money from outside investors in the US with all the SEC red tape.
- No track record
- Lastly and most importantly, I feel that there is barely any edge out there for the retail trader. With all the competition in the market, I find it very hard to believe anybody out there truly makes an income from just trading for a living.

I started my trading education path back in 2011 up until about 2016 then life came around, but recently I've been coming back to the drawing board but this time around knowing what I know now, I am wondering if this is even a realistic path to go down or if I should just stop now and focus my time on something that could pay off more instead of going down the rabbit hole.

Again, this might be stupid, and I am sure I will get a lot of "noob thinks he is going to make millions overnight" or "haven't even traded yet and is already going to quit" type replies but I'm just trying to look at this from a realistic and logical path this time around.

Thanks!

 

[James.DeGori]

%%
Adding to the complexity;
WSJ tends to promote low pe stuff/ but the problem with that; dow tends to have low pe + goes lower/LOL.
Adding to the complexity; I still hate the idea dow outperformed spy + qqq[one day] last week I was not even in dow/LOL...………………………………………………………………………………………...

Off topic, but is the DOW really relevant anymore? When I hear talking heads at the end of a newscast say the “The was up today (or down)”, I think why does it matter.

 

[ironchef]

All traders eventually find their trading niche.

Minor correction: All profitable traders eventually find their trading niche.

And if they move away from their niche they often get burn.