Am I Wasting My Time?

[Tall Mike]

The fact that you wrote the above, mention the "rabbit hole" phrase and not once stating if you're profitable.

Stay away from trading and do not look back...seriously...its not for you.

wrbtrader

I initially lost about 4k when I first started, then made it all back and thensome over the years indexing.

Haven't actively traded since then though.

 

[Tall Mike]

What are your goals?
What methods are you employing to meet your goals?
Is it working?

More later, maybe

What are your goals?
To earn enough returns on my capital through trading to support myself.
What methods are you employing to meet your goals?
Right now, just been trying to learn. I haven't progressed really any further yet.
Is it working?
No (not for active trading at least). I think a big issue I am having is finding the "secret sauce". Once I start learning something, I will just to learning the next thing. I don't think I really know what type of "trader" I would want to be.

 

[smallfil]

Would you have any recommendations for a start?

I feel like I am getting distracted because there is so much fluff out there, I am having a hard time finding whats valuable and whats not.

Your post is pretty vague as to details. Did you actually, try trading stocks or were you using a make believe paper account or just doing research and it did not meet your expectations? Learning the mechanics of trading is easy. Anyone can place stock trades once, you learn it. Now, learning how to read stockcharts which is a must is one other matter. Add to that the need for risk management and proper position sizing. Using stop losses is another must. Add those elements and you are ahead of majority of traders. A lot of traders ignore risk management and position sizing at their peril. Seriously, those are the things to focus on. Then, choose a time frame to trade. Day trade. Swing Trade. Trend follow. Take your pick. I Swing Trade and Trend follow only.

 

[smallfil]

What are your goals?
To earn enough returns on my capital through trading to support myself.
What methods are you employing to meet your goals?
Right now, just been trying to learn. I haven't progressed really any further yet.
Is it working?
No (not for active trading at least). I think a big issue I am having is finding the "secret sauce". Once I start learning something, I will just to learning the next thing. I don't think I really know what type of "trader" I would want to be.

The secret sauce is that tiny edge you get when you are trading. Nobody is going to give you their tiny edge because you would be competing with them directly. Learn to trade properly and you can develop your secret sauce. I suggest you read Stan Weinstein's book, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, $19.95 printed on my book. It may cost less nowadays. Just $16.90 on Amazon Prime. Just to set the record straight, not affiliated with him whatsoever.

 

[Real Money]

I would absolutely agree with this and sort of why I am having a hard time finding an edge or to even go about doing it. Everything out there just talks about trading strategies, but none of them show me the evidence why this should work. I think markets are mostly random most of the time; if something is random you cant make money with it.

Professionals watch what is being traded (as it trades) and retail doesn't even know what's being traded. They don't know what is driving price, in something like ES.

That's why they are always talking about retail techniques instead of the trading being done by the institutions and the techniques they use - things that actually affect the market.

Obviously, the institutions are doing the real size, and retail is not. It follows that you should be watching them and learning about what they do, and how they do it.

This last part is a closely guarded secret in the industry - proprietary information, trade secrets. They make all their traders, quants, and support people sign NDA's and non-compete, etc.

The most important thing in the market is rate differentials and basis spreads - index basis and treasury basis. Real edge is based on reality. It's naive to think that retail is getting ahead of anybody by using backtested entry strategies, simplified technicals, or market depth/order flow.

 

[Tall Mike]

Not a fair question without knowing what your constraints are? Obviously u have some ways to go before u realize whether u can make it or not? Can u/family sustain? Says u are greater NYC area - not the cheapest but maybe everything is paid for, you have no commitments and need any simple job to pursue your dream? Maybe not!!! What are your constraints
Well maybe u have family money and you want freedom and need to make 5k/month? Maybe not ... what’s the goal?
A trader making 4K per month full time is still a full time trader who made it if he doesn’t care about having any other day job

also let’s say u need to make x every month? Do u have to trade every day? What if it comes in only a few trades? Do u know? Have u tested that?

Ok now what skills/education do u have for alternatives? sorry don’t mean to vague but more give u questions to either think or answer - good luck

- No family to support
- I live below my means so yes, even though I am NYC suburb area I really don't have too many expenses.
- Truthfully, at this point my goal would just be to generate some income from trading and being consistent. I know that may sound stupid but since I have not had much success so far, I think that is a good start.
- Regarding your last question, no I have not tested that. I do not have a methodology of how I would trade at this point.
- The alternative would be to continue my career at a pharma company and move up the later (which personally doesn't appeal to me at at all but the money is good).

 

[Tall Mike]

Professionals watch what is being traded (as it trades) and retail doesn't even know what's being traded. They don't know what is driving price, in something like ES.

That's why they are always talking about retail techniques instead of the trading being done by the institutions and the techniques they use - things that actually affect the market.

Obviously, the institutions are doing the real size, and retail is not. It follows that you should be watching them and learning about what they do, and how they do it.

This last part is a closely guarded secret in the industry - proprietary information, trade secrets. They make all their traders, quants, and support people sign NDA's and non-compete, etc.

The most important thing in the market is rate differentials and basis spreads - index basis and treasury basis. Real edge is based on reality. It's naive to think that retail is getting ahead of anybody by using backtested entry strategies, simplified technicals, or market depth/order flow.

You are the second person who mentioned to me trading spreads.

Literally almost mirroring exactly what you said about technicals also.

 

[Tall Mike]

Your post is pretty vague as to details. Did you actually, try trading stocks or were you using a make believe paper account or just doing research and it did not meet your expectations? Learning the mechanics of trading is easy. Anyone can place stock trades once, you learn it. Now, learning how to read stockcharts which is a must is one other matter. Add to that the need for risk management and proper position sizing. Using stop losses is another must. Add those elements and you are ahead of majority of traders. A lot of traders ignore risk management and position sizing at their peril. Seriously, those are the things to focus on. Then, choose a time frame to trade. Day trade. Swing Trade. Trend follow. Take your pick. I Swing Trade and Trend follow only.

Yes, I traded a live account.

Lost 4k day trading the ES and then haven't traded since as I am now back to the drawing board.

 

[speedo]

Professionals watch what is being traded (as it trades) and retail doesn't even know what's being traded. They don't know what is driving price, in something like ES.

That's why they are always talking about retail techniques instead of the trading being done by the institutions and the techniques they use - things that actually affect the market.

Obviously, the institutions are doing the real size, and retail is not. It follows that you should be watching them and learning about what they do, and how they do it.

This last part is a closely guarded secret in the industry - proprietary information, trade secrets. They make all their traders, quants, and support people sign NDA's and non-compete, etc.

The most important thing in the market is rate differentials and basis spreads - index basis and treasury basis. Real edge is based on reality. It's naive to think that retail is getting ahead of anybody by using backtested entry strategies, simplified technicals, or market depth/order flow.

Your views on "retail" are as naive as they are dismissive. We independent traders are not in competition with the institutions nor are sophisticated strategies necessary to do very well. By learning to understand price behavior we KNOW what the institutions are doing and hitch along. By recognizing what happens at technical levels, it becomes obvious to those who have actually done the work when the algo's are hitting the bid or ask and are defending a price point.

 

[Real Money]

Your views on "retail" are as naive as they are dismissive. We independent traders are not in competition with the institutions nor are sophisticated strategies necessary to do very well.

You seriously think retail traders have one fucking clue what is going on in the treasury basis? You think they could even tell you what index basis trading is? Rate differentials as well.

I didn't say you can't make money. I said you're not getting ahead of them. Big difference.
Never said simple strategies can't work either.

Fact is, retail doesn't even know they are in competition with the institutions. Forget about the actual details of it, most of them are clueless on infrastructure, quant finance, market making, all of it.