Am I Wasting My Time?

[Tall Mike]

Trading needs patience and discipline. You should spend time understanding the market trends and learning a trading strategy.

I am trying to but I think I am still in the process of finding what I believe about the markets and what I think could work and what wouldn'.

 

[Tall Mike]

100k risk capital is enough. But, you aren't going to be living large until you double at least once. Have to be realistic about what kind of income you can generate under risk controls.

There is edge, but retail isn't prepared. Generally speaking, they don't know the treasury market, and they don't know professional trading techniques.

If you can't clearly describe your edge, and are not confident in your ability to make out sized returns exploiting it, then you probably don't have one.

I would absolutely agree with this and sort of why I am having a hard time finding an edge or to even go about doing it. Everything out there just talks about trading strategies, but none of them show me the evidence why this should work. I think markets are mostly random most of the time; if something is random you cant make money with it.

 

[Tall Mike]

1. for sure, you should assume realistic returns of ~15-20%, so you need at least 500k to make a living.
2. it's not as hard if you are aiming for friends & family money, SEC regulations really start impacting you at 25 million or so
3. that's something that you have to build up and if OPM is where you're going, have a setup that can be audited
4. thats not true - smaller investor has an edge over larger players, as there are plenty of capacity constrained strategies that you can find and run

Thank you for the reply.

Refering to #4 can you give me an example of one?

 

[Tall Mike]

As long as there's liquidity and you can buy and sell when you want - who are you competing against?

Other participants in the market. Somebody has to take the opposite side of your trade.

 

[Tall Mike]

Lol, sounds very familiar. I can’t tell you what you need to do, but I said to myself that even if I fail, I win. I win by trying, by learning, by improving. Does this attitude make it easy in reality? Hell no! It’s very frustrating “wasting” all this time with nothing to show for it. No indication that you will ever have anything to show for it. Can you handle it? Can your family handle it? Even IF you make it, will it be worth it?

Thats how I feel right now; wasting all my time with nothing to show for it lol. I have the textbook knowledge, but what does that even get me? Nothing.

Regarding family, I am single with no family and I live below my means so I do not need a really hight COL to support myself.

 

[Tall Mike]

The question is how long you been learning to trade? It seems that you are distracted and have been giving it a haphazard effort. A lot of people aspire to trade but, do not give it enough effort. Now, more than ever, there is an abundance of information on the internet and trading videos on You Tube. When I started, I had to pay for services costing thousands, be it information based trading systems or training. None of it worked. The obvious reason is the trading system was no good and those conducting the training had no clue. Not everyone who claims they are a guru is one. Most are mere charlatans out to get your monies. Now, add to that the lies and misinformation spread by CNBC and Bloomberg, ET trolls telling you what the market should be doing and you got a cesspool for bogus information. $100,000 as a capital is enough if you manage it smartly. A lot of traders start with only $1,000-$2,000. Sure, they do not have enough but, what matters is how you manage your monies. Position sizing and risk management which is ignored by a lot of traders. Maybe, you do not have enough of an interest to be a trader so, give it up now. If you want to be really a successful trader, roll up your sleeves and get to work.

Would you have any recommendations for a start?

I feel like I am getting distracted because there is so much fluff out there, I am having a hard time finding whats valuable and whats not.

 

[Tall Mike]

Man...you one of the smartest "noob" posters I have seen on this site. Most "noobs" coming here are either completely broke and think they can trade for a living via the "we will fun you outfits if you can pass our test" or they expect to average a few ES points daily on their grossly under-capitalized account.

My advice is build your career outside of trading and swing trade on the side with your $100k and contribute heavily to all retirement vehicles.

Well, I never came into trading thinking it was a get rich quick overnight route. I always looked at it as a business.

Acutally, I will say this, when I first started my research back in 2011, I did fall for the "x amount per day" path, but soon realized the harsh reality that it doesn't work like that.

 

[Tall Mike]

You need to be living to trade, not trading for a living

Jokes aside, i think the better question is, do you have genuine interest for trading and markets(and yourself)? If so, then go for it. If it's only the money, then don't do it IMO, not worth it.

I do think I have a genuine interest in looking at financial markets.

However, I also think the main reason for trading is to make money (why wouldn't it be? Its a business after all) and if I don't see that happening, or the outcome is not something realistic then why go down that path?

 

[bone]

1. If I knew who took the other side of my trades - I would be paralyzed. Truly. So happy that I don't.

2. Tell me one business venture where you are not competing against a counterparty with more capital, more clients, more staff, more IP, more computing, longer track record, more of everything. It's true for a restaurant, for a gym, for a car repair shop, for a software startup... for anything really.

3. It's a mistake to think that if JPM or GS is taking the other side of your trade that you are competing against their own in-house traders. They are clearing for tons of commercials who hedge, they clear for institutional investors, and they clear for independents and hedge funds as well.

4. Your trade timeframe horizon will usually be different than your counterparty. Unless you're scalping - then you're hosed anyway because you're butting heads against Algos and Bots and you have a ridiculous ECN disadvantage.

Other participants in the market. Somebody has to take the opposite side of your trade.

 

[speedo]

I would absolutely agree with this and sort of why I am having a hard time finding an edge or to even go about doing it. Everything out there just talks about trading strategies, but none of them show me the evidence why this should work. I think markets are mostly random most of the time; if something is random you cant make money with it.

Sounds like too many “traders”. Looking for a shortcut, someone to show you setups that “work”. There ARE no shortcuts. To become a trader you must understand price behavior before you understand how or why something “works”. Even if someone showed you a good strategy, the market changes personality and you won’t know why it no longer works or what to do about. Trading becomes relatively easy but not before a great deal of technical and personal effort.