hey man thanks chapter 4 is so good and pure truth. i learned this working for a commercial trader once your mind has accepted these truths it will change your world. great read.
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am i the only one or are there others who find it easier to pick tops than bottoms
- Thread starter padutrader
- Start date
hey man thanks chapter 4 is so good and pure truth. i learned this working for a commercial trader once your mind has accepted these truths it will change your world. great read.
hey man thanks chapter 4 is so good and pure truth. i learned this working for a commercial trader once your mind has accepted these truths it will change your world. great read.
yeah this little book written so long ago yet still holds true today.
tops and bottoms are not clearly defined line or even band.
i think you misunderstood what i meant by tops and bottoms....i did not mean THE top or THE bottom.
every swing has a top and bottom
I prefer to wait for more selling pressure, than take the risk that more selling will occur.
it is my experience that once selling comes MORE SELLING WILL COME.
please watch the market and check this.
if you believe big boys rule then understand that they do not enter all at once,like me.they always will build because their positions are huge.
They need to find suckers to take the other side of their transaction and the suckers have very small monetary trading power so it will take time to distribute.
simpleMeLike i know you have a open mind so i am addressing this to you.
Do enough samples, if both our trades are a 50/50 coin flip, then we'll both be right 50% of the time.
if it is 50-50, in the long run , you will be breakeven.....if your account survives
and with today's leverage, which 90% traders have, it will not....so this 50-50 law of nature is just something that will never have time to come about
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As one poster demanded of me: Show me proofs of your baseless claim.that's how much positive expectancy an EMA gives you.. 2.5615%... per my research.
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i do not think, you should think, the other person is an idiot...in the markets that is a very dangerous assumption.
your research would have tested only moving averages and only an absolute idiot would enter a trade on the basis of moving averages alone.
they will likely be seeing momentum and also maybe volume.
Also perhaps seeing the longer time frame trend...
and of course there is also instinct: if I see a perfect set up i will pass because i know it is a trap
an EMA gives you.. 2.5615%... per my research.
i do not think, you should think, the other person is an idiot...in the markets that is a very dangerous assumption.
your research would have tested only moving averages and only an absolute idiot would enter a trade on the basis of moving averages alone.
they will likely be seeing momentum and also maybe volume.
Also perhaps seeing the longer time frame trend...
and of course there is also instinct: if I see a perfect set up i will pass because i know it is a trap
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once selling comes
i mean strong selling
and exactly what is strong selling? it is relative.it is according to the context.
remember there is always selling.....in every transaction there is a seller....
but experienced trader will get my point. hopefully at least
momentum loss is easier to see for me on tops then bottoms
maybe because there is no loss of momentum at bottoms....bottoms are made in panic so maybe it is necessary to have much wider stops on bottoms then tops
IMO, this is a bad mentality. Don't pick tops or bottoms. Try to catch the meat in between. Many a great trader have lost their ass calling market tops and bottoms. The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
Subjectively speaking I have noticed the opposite. It's typically easier to "call" a market bottom (though I feel gross even saying that). There's an equilibrium price that market participants won't let the stock sink past. But when the market is rising meteorically the ecstasy tends to make people continue buying.
a market bottom
i meant swing low and top not market top and bottom.