am i the only one or are there others who find it easier to pick tops than bottoms

dozu888 said:
If you don’t even know luck is real how can you tell the difference from skill
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if something is going in certain direction it will continue to go in that direction....let it be eurusd, ES,spy, a dog a plane a car or a person.
nothing to do with luck....it is natural
 
Scataphagos said:
like a test of the 200 day MA.
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now i know why bottoms are made one after another.....traders anticipate reversal instead of waiting for evidence that it has reversed....ok that explains why bottoms are made one after another and it is said that markets hammer out a bottom.
your small paragraph has described what i have seen markets do for a decade.

you have made me see daylight..
 
Scataphagos said:
It's often said, "Tops are a process. Bottoms are an event."

I believe it's because of players' long-side bias. They resist negatives and try to "hold in there" as tops develop because they don't want to let go of their longs and miss out on further rally, if any. At bottoms players are (always) chomping at the bit to buy... just give them any shred of an excuse. And often that excuse is not news-driven but rather "technical".... like a test of the 200 day MA.
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https://stockmarketobservations.fil...chology-of-the-stock-market-by-g-c-selden.pdf

Here is a free weekend gift lol. It describes the top and bottom of a major bull bear cycle.

Shorter time frames like weeks and months work somewhat similarly.. Tops just happen. When my pro boys decide there is too much excess in the market, they decide its time to clean house. All of a sudden the market drops in response of a negative news, while seems for a long time the market has been 'shrugging off' bad news... investors are shocked - 'why is THIS piece of bad news so significant' lol.... weeks later the V or W bottom happens, but THAT is a process.. the excess is cleansed, my pro boys gather back the chips, time for a rally to new highs.... this paragraph mostly describes the correction/rally cycle during a long bull market like we've had since 2009.

On even shorter time frame it becomes more technical - order imbalance and such.

So - the market is definitely NOT fractal... the skills required to trade the 5 min chart is completely different from the daily weekly chart (which by the way is what I do).

also btw for the purpose of this thread... tops are NOT readable, because they are decided by secret meetings... (in the time frames I work with).... bottoms are readable, you can see the process of cleansing the excess.

also btw, my boys don't decide tops randomly.. they gauge dumb money sentiment, aka excess... that's why you should too.
 
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Turveyd said:
The issue with that is luck isn't a real thing, don't label something you can't understand as luck or coincidence, try to understand and learn.
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You're trying to be an empiricist.

Suppose you and I both have an opinion on market direction, but that these opinions are opposites, and that these opinions are based on two different biased readings of the very same data. One of us will have consistent problems in our trading results; the other trader will be lucky. :wtf:

Do ya see the difference? :D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia
 
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dozu888 said:
https://stockmarketobservations.fil...chology-of-the-stock-market-by-g-c-selden.pdf

Here is a free weekend gift lol. It describes the top and bottom of a major bull bear cycle.

Shorter time frames like weeks and months work somewhat similarly.. Tops just happen. When my pro boys decide there is too much excess in the market, they decide its time to clean house. All of a sudden the market drops in response of a negative news, while seems for a long time the market has been 'shrugging off' bad news... investors are shocked - 'why is THIS piece of bad news so significant' lol.... weeks later the V or W bottom happens, but THAT is a process.. the excess is cleansed, my pro boys gather back the chips, time for a rally to new highs.... this paragraph mostly describes the correction/rally cycle during a long bull market like we've had since 2009.

On even shorter time frame it becomes more technical - order imbalance and such.

So - the market is definitely NOT fractal... the skills required to trade the 5 min chart is completely different from the daily weekly chart (which by the way is what I do).

also btw for the purpose of this thread... tops are NOT readable, because they are decided by secret meetings... (in the time frames I work with).... bottoms are readable, you can see the process of cleansing the excess.

also btw, my boys don't decide tops randomly.. they gauge dumb money sentiment, aka excess... that's why you should too.
More...

the pro boys do not just decide
they DISTRIBUTE

they do not have JUST 100 shares of something.
THIS IS COMMON KNOWLEDGE
 
tommcginnis said:
You're trying to be an empiricist.
Suppose you and I both have an opinion on market direction, but that these opinions are opposites, and that these opinions are based on two different biased readings of the very same data. One of us will have consistent problems in our trading results; the other trader will be lucky. :wtf:

Do ya see the difference? :D
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stop being a AH

so you are the best trader in the world accepted. will tell the queen to knight you and Trump to give the congressional medal of honor to you entire family
 
on 10 May NQ swinged alot during Asian session.

Where are the tops and bottoms?

in real life, tops and bottoms are not clearly defined line or even band.

important thing is to identify continuation and reversal signal, and non trending part of chart.



nq-png.202371
 
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