am i the only one or are there others who find it easier to pick tops than bottoms

[SimpleMeLike]

I believe you should be trading tops and bottom as a day trader.

I believe as a day trader we must know how to trade everything or all markets conditions. Reversals, breakouts, joining a trend, etc, etc.

Reversals occurring during day should be traded.

It is easy? Hmmmm, it depends on your risk personality. When price approaches a potential reversal area, let’s say resistance, will you go short when you see the first sign of selling? Will you wait for more selling, will you wait for buying and then selling?

An aggressive trader will sell at the first sign of selling, a conservative trader will want to wait for more clues of selling.

I prefer to wait for more selling pressure, than take the risk that more selling will occur. This means I sometimes have bad risk vs reward reversals trades, but more probability of a reversal occurring. Which means I loss big money at times.

Take what I say with a grain of salt. I am still a sim trader.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

on 10 May NQ swinged alot during Asian session.

Where are the tops and bottoms?

in real life, tops and bottoms are not clearly defined line or even band.

important thing is to identify continuation and reversal signal, and non trending part of chart.

My point exactly. As traders we have to be ready to make money in all market conditions we see on the chart. Tops and bottoms are never very clear as it is shown in theory.

 

[MarkBrown]

there is a HUGE difference between selling or picking tops and selling short. tops are not necessary to pick in order to sell short.

 

[Turveyd]

Now your ego is hurt. Luck is a real thing. Like when you flip coin and get 10 heads in a row.

If you don’t even know luck is real how can you tell the difference from skill

Might be starting up a new Ignore list, low IQ people annoy me!!

Ego LOL

Derren Brown flipped 10 heads in a row on video, made it look live in his TV show, the odds are only 2048 to 1, in reality it took him 17hours before he had a 10 heads run, that's just math!!

Skill is profiting, Lack of Skill is losing, no luck required, yet again because LUCK isn't real.

 

[Turveyd]

You're trying to be an empiricist.

Suppose you and I both have an opinion on market direction, but that these opinions are opposites, and that these opinions are based on two different biased readings of the very same data. One of us will have consistent problems in our trading results; the other trader will be lucky.

Do ya see the difference?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia

Do enough samples, if both our trades are a 50/50 coin flip, then we'll both be right 50% of the time.

I don't trade of opinions, I trade off it's going up or down and therefore likely to keep doing that, obviously I lose when it stops doing that shortly after I take a trade like everyone else, but you can remove the opinion.

 

[ironchef]

https://stockmarketobservations.fil...chology-of-the-stock-market-by-g-c-selden.pdf

Here is a free weekend gift lol. It describes the top and bottom of a major bull bear cycle.

Shorter time frames like weeks and months work somewhat similarly.. Tops just happen. When my pro boys decide there is too much excess in the market, they decide its time to clean house. All of a sudden the market drops in response of a negative news, while seems for a long time the market has been 'shrugging off' bad news... investors are shocked - 'why is THIS piece of bad news so significant' lol.... weeks later the V or W bottom happens, but THAT is a process.. the excess is cleansed, my pro boys gather back the chips, time for a rally to new highs.... this paragraph mostly describes the correction/rally cycle during a long bull market like we've had since 2009.

On even shorter time frame it becomes more technical - order imbalance and such.

So - the market is definitely NOT fractal... the skills required to trade the 5 min chart is completely different from the daily weekly chart (which by the way is what I do).

also btw for the purpose of this thread... tops are NOT readable, because they are decided by secret meetings... (in the time frames I work with).... bottoms are readable, you can see the process of cleansing the excess.

also btw, my boys don't decide tops randomly.. they gauge dumb money sentiment, aka excess... that's why you should too.

Your description of your pro boys reminded me of a book I read when I was young and innocent: Ney. I thought it was BS.

 

[ironchef]

Might be starting up a new Ignore list, low IQ people annoy me!!

Ego LOL

Derren Brown flipped 10 heads in a row on video, made it look live in his TV show, the odds are only 2048 to 1, in reality it took him 17hours before he had a 10 heads run, that's just math!!

Skill is profiting, Lack of Skill is losing, no luck required, yet again because LUCK isn't real.

Actually sir, I believe more in luck than skills. If you are lucky, your first 10 flips will be 10 heads, if you are unlucky, it takes 17 hours. It is probability.

Even with positive expectancy, I need luck to be profitable because a hundred trades a month is not large enough to converge to the meager positive expectancy.

 

[Turveyd]

Actually sir, I believe more in luck than skills. If you are lucky, your first 10 flips will be 10 heads, if you are unlucky, it takes 17 hours. It is probability.

Even with positive expectancy, I need luck to be profitable because a hundred trades a month is not large enough to converge to the meager positive expectancy.

Rather than rely on something that doesn't exit, wouldn't improving and getting a better positive expectancy??

If your doing better than expected then you likely just got your positive expectancy wrong

 

[dozu888]

Rather than rely on something that doesn't exit, wouldn't improving and getting a better positive expectancy??

If your doing better than expected then you likely just got your positive expectancy wrong

now you are trying to sound cool... and all I have seen from this thread is 'distance from a EMA'... if that's all you have, then I am certain your winning (if true) is 97.4385% due to luck.. because that's how much positive expectancy an EMA gives you.. 2.5615%... per my research.

 

[maxinger]

as mentioned in my earlier posting,
identifying tops and bottoms is not a good idea because in real life, things are not that straight forward.
Now see what has happened to NQ throughtout the whole of 10 May 19
Identifying type of market is important.