Almost everything works...

Quote from keeptradin':

You misread my meaning, but I felt that upon reading the words I wrote that that would be the case. Much like in trading, we can know an outcome in advance, yet fail to take the appropriate action to avoid a negative outcome.

My meaning was that after reading your posts, I found them to be well written. And I meant that I was saying that with sincerity, and not sarcasm. I was not implying that your posts were sincere rather than sarcastic, although that would be a relevant inference.

The reason for that statement was that so many passive/agressive types here on ET resort to sarcasm to say what their passive side will not allow them to verbalize. My intention was merely to convey that I found your posts to be insightful, and that I meant that in a sincere way.

I too enjoy a dry martini, but have taken more to the bourbon side of things of late. Something about the bite that reconnects me to my redneck roots. :p

thanks for your response. I am a bourbon fan too. My bourbon of choice is the one recommedended by the Kentucky Derby blue grass folks. straight shots and no ice, thank you.
 
Quote from Zr1Trader:

+1

I use about 10 to 12 leading indicators of price.

Many center on orders.

Orders people use often leave them at the gate and unfilled. It is very strange to me to see people placing orders that will not be filled.

The DOM "walls" are a prime example of volume quantities that are not going to let price pass and will cause price to rebound in the opposite direction.

OTR charts are the best volume charts for watch turns and understanding how many partial fills and which harmonics (odd or even) are at play.

It seems as though volume is leading and then for some reason, you think price is leading.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Whatever happened to Spydertrader's attempts to trade Jack's stock method? It was so complex, it was difficult to follow, but I thought the volume-based concepts made sense. In particular, Jack had an exit trigger based on extreme volume that seemed to work very well.

As i recall, his approach was to watch group of higher beta stocks, wait for them to enter a low volume consolidation phase, then attempt to buy when they confirmed an up move. Not all that different from O'Neil's CANSLIM.

I lost interest in Jack when he started claiming his daytrading students were able to net several times the daily range.

As you saw and read. The stock trading took place over a year. Orders were announced the trades were taken and then the results were posted for over a year. You probably know the annualized take from reading the journal.

3 beta stocks selected in various ways over the years were used.

the one pager gives everyone the formulae for each of the volumes designated: DU, FRV, and Peaking.

One table color coded is a normalized table that can be used for any high beta universe.

O'Neil came upon the scene at some point after 1957 when the system I use was first distributed to others. today you can get your Universe with the click of a button. Stocktables.com uses the EPS and RS percentiles of O'Neil. We both started with little initial capital: he at 500 bucks and I started with 300. there was an odd lot penalty at that time.

In stocks volume leads price by about 1 and 1/2 hours. A nice time advantage. for yearsthe SEC cited me for insider trading simply because of this fact of volume leading price (and which they had to be taught so they could try their best to understand how front running really works. Since they couldn't, they accepted the idea that I could not possible know such a diverse population of information sources. At any rate they ceased and decisted after a few years. And their citations were withdrawn. they did penalize my broker, however. My broker embroidered their coattailing operation and for embroidering MLPF&B was fined.

Stock trading is position trading for me, PVT.

those whom I support in their learning also trade intraday. SCT is what they do. See the one-pager. Commodities indexes are judged by their daily range. their is a common formula. this can be used as a denominator to determine the daily multiple of or the market's offer.

As stated by others here in the past the multiple appraoches 6 commonly. Gaussian distributions of two market variables were also tabulated and presented.

since it is common to enter on the opening bar and stay in the market all day by staying on the correct side of the market, it turns out a multiple of the ATR is a common experience for those doing the drills of learning all of this.

Entry/exit trading is replaced by hold/reversal trading and using one pattern that has a specific unvariying OOE.

Any observer could examine the reasoning involved. It is indisputable as seen on ET over the years.

Asa person takes a look at himself, he usually finds he has absorbed the CW and myths of the markets. They do not erase from the long term memory. These people all have undifferentiated minds as a consequence.

If they were learning to read as they learnedwhat is in their minds for markets, then they would not be able to learn to read.

They can read, however. With respect to learning to read, they always did what they were told.

The same is true for their learning to drive a car. they earned their licenses.

Wealth is how people measure a trader's success. Some people give away money and other give away time. A few give away both.

I use PEP to take money away from Wall Street and so far even the SEC has bitched about how I do it. They think I am an insider trader. What a joke.

the belt person lost interest. this is normal for a CW and myth oriented believer. How could it be any other way? It cannot be any other way when a person has a mind that are the consequence of his beliefs.

Look at Andrew Lo's mind. And people believe him.

Why was the SEC convinced I was a criminal? It may be that they get trined to believe the CW that big money believes.

In trading, the minority rules. The majority are the victims.

In retail, it is believed that most people lose. I believe most people have wrecked their minds permanently.
 
Quote from danielc1:

Don't we all love the internet and sites like this?

Jack:
One : You come to this thread and tell me I have a lot to learn. Great I hope I do, when I don't, live get's pretty boring, knowing it all.
Two : You are projecting your own shortcomings to other people. You tell me, a guy with 200 post in ten years, that I'm leaking my cocoon because of my posting. Euhmmm, right, mister over 5000 posts. (Where do you find the time to make so many lengthly post?)
Three : Surprise, surprise : I know your methods and what you are trying to tell other people about trading... But I aslo have the wisdom to not try it to see it as the only way to trade. Oh, by the way, what you tell and teach is something most old time floor pit traders also know. Nothing new and public knowledge if you do the research.
Four : I hope the guy that has researched you, will take the time to research me, because there is some evidence of 'succes' (what is succes by the way?) due to my trading. Tip use the same handle on some exotic cars forums...
Five : Get your own tread, if you have nothing constructive to say.

And as a human being, I wish you all the succes you want and a healthy live.

Give Martin Sosnoff a read. Try "Silent Investor, Silent Loser". Toni, his countess wife, apparently shares his art and photography interests. His inside covers do show a bunch of altrnative CW types of approaches.


His firm was the first non fund outfit to go public. (google Milliken)

People spend two things in life (live as you would say): money and time. Time is not recoverable. My orientation is to help others since it a great way to leverage doing problem solving.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

I use about 10 to 12 leading indicators of price.

Excuse me,if i may...Have read this statement many time and what does it mean?Sometimes you use 10, the other time 12,am i correct?It depends on something?I just don`t understand when people sometimes say this kind of words - ''i think'',''approximately'',''it seems'',''maybe'',''10 to 12''...etc

-How many?
-10 to 12
-What is it?
-10...or 12...
-so,10 or 12?
-sometimes...
-hmm...i see...(the conversation of two Pan troglodytes)


:D :D :D

Sorry,i only felt so good this evening for the past 5 years...
 
You know, Jack, I think my trading is not that different then yours or what you are trying to tell other people. I use for example also 'volume' as a leading price indicator in my intraday trading. Only I do not make 5000+ posts about it. One is more then sufficient, if you are clear about it... And a picture says more then a thousand words...
 
Quote from danielc1:

I find something amusing, but I'm also puzzled about it... Most things on this site is about how nothing works and that the majority of people lose their money in trading. I have seen many, many methods of trading. You know what I find out? Most of the stuff out there that is public knowledge works very well. Darvas, Gann, Krauz, Kase, Curtis, Cooper, Tharp, Douglas, Elder and so on, have shared some ideas that work.

I think that the reason why the majority of people lose their money in trading has nothing to do with trading but in why they trade. Maybe people trade to lose and not to win money. Winning money does not solve internal struggles, losing does... because it requires change. Change of words, change of thinking, change of feelings, change of being...

So it is not the method of trading that people see or use that causes losing, it is the people their innerselfs, that is causing this...

I'm wondering who share this believe on this site. Then I can put everybody else on 'ignore'

:D

Once upon a time , a scammer was selling services from a website , trading education ,trading signals ,site advertising fees ,software sold on site , and rebates from bucket shops were his main source of income .

He wanted the world to believe everything his site sold worked.The moral is don't entertain pricks!
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

My pedigree from research related to things like IQ and Income, that could predict what income you'd earn when you were 40 based on your ASVAB iq percentile, showed that intelligence was the greatest predictor of income with a 37% R^2.

I guess my analysis of that is why I'm always leaning towards quantitative trading methods, than seat of the pants guessing. I don't consider strategies that work in real time optimized on past data as any reason to discount backtesting. Backtesting is a way to find a solution to a formula. Assuming your strategy is not literally measuring if it's May 5th, 2010, do not buy, then whatever the model says it did around that time is probably close to what it would have done actually. Even if the trades went off at different prices, it still would have had relatively similar positions on. In the case of IQ and Income, your intelligence modelled against the log of your income at age 40 is just the same as the models output at the time you had optimized it.

Everything works is naive, because what doesn't work is thinking that not having to optimize simply because you fail to see the scientific basis behind backtesting is significantly more effective than trading on discretion.

I prefer artificial intelligence to a trader's guesstimate any day of the week, and know that those discretionary traders cannot possibly trade as well as my robots do.

I got a 96 on my ASVAB, how much money should I be making?
 
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