To be honest, I don't know where the 600% from the first post comes from
I just spilled my drink! On a serious note, can they even send MOO or MOC orders?
I think what Sle is referring to is the likelihood of someone actually getting filled at the Opening/Closing price. Reality is someone trading this strategy (at least in S&P futures) is that they are going to be paying a $4 commission and a minimum one tick difference from recorded open/close. So for Joe Retail that's $4 + $12.5 + $12.5 on each trade that needs to be subtracted from any historically tested gains. (I don't trade stocks/etfs but I imagine customers from brokers that exist for the purpose of selling order flow, like Robinhood, will not get the exact open/close price either). As we all know, backtested stats and real time trading stats aren't always the same.
Plain Vanilla this trade has unacceptable drawdowns, could it be bettered as Sle is suggesting by just trading Friday to Monday or maybe using specific stocks instead of indexes or waiting for after hour price deviations before entering instead of the official close? Yes.
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6611693
If this trade made money in a 'prolonged' down market it would certainly have a purpose.
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K
krugman25
I wonder if there are any correlations between up days during market leading to gains after hours or maybe the opppsite, down days leading to gains after hours. Something to take the after hours bias and perhaps isolate conditions where it is even more likely to be.
When an article comes out on a study of the calls Goldman Sachs made on some stocks, when they said to buy, the stock tanked, and when they said to sell, the stock went up! That is all you need to know. The same goes for the hacks on CNBC preaching doom and gloom of late, talking about recession and how the market is about to crash? Even here in Elitetrader, you have trolls and BS artists peddling their BS daily.
great mister.
The best report, the best analysis, are not from the 'experts' but from none other than ourselves.
The rest of the reports are trolls and BS artists who publish the reports for some whatever intentions and motives.
In the decades that I have been trading, our group of traders (family and friends) use to keep track of the correlation between:
1: Pre-market futures Up: Dow= +100 Dow / SP500= +10,
versus closing prices on that day;
Bull Market= closed Up 70% (or >) of the time. /
Bear Market= closed Down < 50% of the time.
2: Pre-market futures Down: Dow= -100 Dow / SP500= -10,
versus closing prices on that day;
Bull Market= closed Up > 50% of the time. /
Bear Market= closed Down 70% (or >).
These studies we did were based on at least a decade containing both a bull & bear market.
The problems with blinding using this kind of data is, these were long term averages that dramatically changed depending if we were in a Bull or Bear Market.
In others words:
1: In a Bull market your odds of an Up close with strong positive pre-market futures are in your favor, but those odds are not in your favor in a Bear market.
2: In a Bear market your odds of a Down close with strong negative pre-market futures are in your favor, but those odds are not in your favor in a Bull market.
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All market gains since 1993 (or rather since humans started trading ) have occurred
after trading hours
AND
during trading hours !!!!
You just need to
remove your mental block & mental barrier,
open your mind and eyes wider and bigger, be opportunistic,
and you will see tons of opportunities everywhere
and everytime.
Do your own analysis, be confident with yourself and your self worth, and don't depend on other untrustworthy people
who are out there to contaminate and brainwash your mind.
You could have earned millions of dollars, and if your heart is willing,
donate your wealth to help the unfortunate.
after trading hours
AND
during trading hours !!!!
You just need to
remove your mental block & mental barrier,
open your mind and eyes wider and bigger, be opportunistic,
and you will see tons of opportunities everywhere
and everytime.
Do your own analysis, be confident with yourself and your self worth, and don't depend on other untrustworthy people
who are out there to contaminate and brainwash your mind.
You could have earned millions of dollars, and if your heart is willing,
donate your wealth to help the unfortunate.
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It makes perfect sense because a lot of it is self-serving. These guys are not about to give up free information that would actually benefit you. Disinformation would actually, benefit them for those sad saps who listen and believe what they say! Unfortunately, for those retail traders, they are sheep being led into slaughter!
K
krugman25
That's a good pep talk, but not the purpose of this thread. Everything you said is true, yet there is a phenoma here where all net market gains have occurred after hours, on none, zero, zip have occured during market hours, over the past 25 years. That's the purpose of this thread, to understand that phenomena better.