Al Gore - Democratic Party candidate in 2008.

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

Anything and everything we believe in or predict we should bet our money on?

Sounds like a GA candidate...

If an individual claims to believe that <b>any</b> 12-1 underdog is a lock to win, yet that individual does not bother to exploit this highly lucrative inefficiency, there are only two possibilities:

A) That individual clearly does not think like a trader, and has no place on a message board for career traders.

or, B) That individual is talking out of his ass, and doesn't even believe in his own prediction.

Take your pick, because there's no third option here.

 

[ZZZzzzzzzz]

So, in your opinion, traders should think about gambling their money on non stock/futures/currency related issues because they like the odds and have a strong feeling?

Like I said, GA material...

Quote from Rearden Metal:

If an individual claims to believe that <b>any</b> 12-1 underdog is a lock to win, yet that individual does not bother to exploit this highly lucrative inefficiency, there are only two possibilities:

A) That individual clearly does not think like a trader, and has no place on a message board for career traders.

or, B) That individual is talking out of his ass, and doesn't even believe in his own prediction.

Take your pick, because there's no third option here.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

So, in your opinion, traders should think about gambling their money on non stock/futures/currency related issues because they like the odds and have a strong feeling?

Like I said, GA material...

So to summarize;

SA claims to see a stack of hundred dollar bills lying on the sidewalk (knowing for a fact that a 12-1 dog is a lock to win), yet doesn't bother to bend down and pick up this free money, since that would somehow be 'gambling'.

SA & LoZZZer: please feel free to troll each other from this point on, because I'm done with this ridiculous thread.

 

[ZZZzzzzzzz]

Hey, you are a drug addict by your own admission, why not admit you are also a gambling addict, if that is the case?

No need to blame me...

Quote from Rearden Metal:

So to summarize;

SA claims to see a stack of hundred dollar bills lying on the sidewalk (knowing for a fact that a 12-1 dog is a lock to win), yet doesn't bother to bend down and pick up this free money, since that would somehow be 'gambling'.

SA & LoZZZer: please feel free to troll each other from this point on, because I'm done with this ridiculous thread.

 

[SouthAmerica]

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Rearden Metal: If an individual claims to believe that any 12-1 underdog is a lock to win, yet that individual does not bother to exploit this highly lucrative inefficiency, there are only two possibilities:

A) That individual clearly does not think like a trader, and has no place on a message board for career traders.

or,

B) That individual is talking out of his ass, and doesn't even believe in his own prediction.



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January 16, 2007

SouthAmerica: If I had the same mentality and addiction as you have regarding trading – then I would have bet my house last summer on the Brazilian national soccer team during the world cup.

Before the last world cup started I thought Brazil was going to win another title and if I were an addicted gambler like you I would have lost my shirt.

The odds about Brazil winning the last world cup it was as good as you can get in your favor - it was almost as a sure bet - if there is such a thing.


.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

Anything and everything we believe in or predict we should bet our money on?

Sounds like a GA candidate...

The willingness to wager money on a prediction at least implies a high level of confidence that you are right. Whereas anyone can "predict" something if nothing is on the line. If you don't have conviction, then you are not predicting in the true sense, you are just being a pundit, spouting conjecture and hot air rather than offering any genuine insight.

As a trader you should understand that, since we see countless "predictions" by market pundits that are about as useful as a beer stand in Mecca. It's only when you wager money that your opinion about the future actually counts for something.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

So, in your opinion, traders should think about gambling their money on non stock/futures/currency related issues because they like the odds and have a strong feeling?

Like I said, GA material...

So if someone offers you 12-1 odds on a coin flip, you are gonna turn them down? If you have not just a "strong feeling", but a strong actual probabilities edge over a counterparty in any predictive wager, then why pass up the opportunity to make free money?

 

[Cutten]

Quote from southamerica:

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SouthAmerica: If I had the same mentality and addiction as you have regarding trading – then I would have bet my house last summer on the Brazilian national soccer team during the world cup.

Before the last world cup started I thought Brazil was going to win another title and if I were an addicted gambler like you I would have lost my shirt.

The odds about Brazil winning the last world cup it was as good as you can get in your favor - it was almost as a sure bet - if there is such a thing.


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Utter nonsense. There were dozens of teams in the world cup, several of them either as good as Brazil or close to it, so Brazil had no way near 100% chance of winning.

Also why would you bet so much that the loss would devastate you? A rational bettor only bets an amount i) that he can afford to risk ii) that is commensurate with the odds. At most, the favourite in a World Cup has say a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The poster here is saying that Al gore is *almost certain* to win i.e. about 3 times as likely to win as the best world cup favourites. Your analogy is totally inaccurate and betrays a complete lack of understanding of the nature of odds, risk, betting and trading.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from Cutten:

Utter nonsense. There were dozens of teams in the world cup, several of them either as good as Brazil or close to it, so Brazil had no way near 100% chance of winning.

Also why would you bet so much that the loss would devastate you? A rational bettor only bets an amount i) that he can afford to risk ii) that is commensurate with the odds. At most, the favourite in a World Cup has say a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The poster here is saying that Al gore is *almost certain* to win i.e. about 3 times as likely to win as the best world cup favourites. Your analogy is totally inaccurate and betrays a complete lack of understanding of the nature of odds, risk, betting and trading.

At least <b><i>someone</b></i> here thinks like a professional trader and belongs on these boards!

 

[SouthAmerica]

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Cutten: Utter nonsense. There were dozens of teams in the world cup, several of them either as good as Brazil or close to it, so Brazil had no way near 100% chance of winning.


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January 21, 2007

SouthAmerica: I am a Brazilian and for a Brazilian – Brazil always has 100 % chance of winning.

I don’t want to make excuses why Brazil was not the champion on the last world cup – but Brazil had the players to win.

Brazil will win the next one in South Africa since Brazil never won a world cup in Africa.

Brazil did win a world cup in:

1) 1958 – in Europe

2) 1962 – in South America

3) 1970 – in Central America

4) 1994 – in North America

5) 2002 – in Asia

6) and in 2010 in Africa



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Regarding the actual subject of this thread – I don’t know what Al Gore is waiting for to jump into the presidential race of 2008.

If he enters the presidential race he will be the candidate that everybody has to beat.

I would consider working for the Al Gore presidential campaign to help elect Al Gore US president in 2008.

I believe Al Gore will need to jump in the race ASAP because he has to get the endorsement of a lot of groups and organizations – before many groups and organizations give their support to one of the people who has already declared that they are running in that race.

From all the candidates Republicans and Democrats – Al Gore is the candidate with the highest international stature and prestige – and that will be a major asset to any president that follows George W. Bush – since the new US president will have an almost impossible job ahead of himself in trying to fix the massive damage that the Bush administration caused to United States clout, prestige, and influence around the world.


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