Ag trade ideas

Actually it is quite easy to find "good trades" in back months with little liquidity. Sometimes the quotes have been stale for a few days and don't show where the market really is. Sometimes it is actually possible to enter a few contracts but you have to keep the position until maturity and suffer the illiquid settlements on your account( beware of forced liquidation with IB for example )...
 
Short Live Cattle Q/V/Z fly @ 1.025.

- V underbought on the curve.
- Too far away to be motivated by todays' fundamentals.
- High historical level.
 
12/04/19 : Long MWH20/ZWH20 @ -11.5.

- Unusual historical discount.
- Large fund short on MW.
-ZW spreads still backwardated but reversing a bit.
-Powerful reversal yesterday.
 
12-09-2019 : Long Robusta coffee F/H @ -9.

- Short squeezes can be really violent on Robusta.
- Funds are short.
- Something was brewing on friday with volume.
 
TraDaToR said:
10-15-2019 : Long KW/ZW July 20 @ -67.5.

-KW is so oversold against any other kind of wheat , it is now finding ways into fedding rations and even ZW delivery.
- Those are new crop contracts differential trading just slightly over current crop differential whereas new crop should replenish ZW stocks.
-I love pain.
More...

KW/ZW : Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...:(
 
I am still long CT H/K/N fly. The contango is too steep on 19/20 expiries compared to 20/21. I don't know for flat prices. Conditions were quite bad this year, and export sales are quite good lately, even without China. Actually, I haven't checked Cotton's fundamentals in a while...
 
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