Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
01-09-20 : Out@-1.350. Bad trade. No idea why.
01-14-20 : Same thing. Bad trade. Out @ 4.9.
Hello everyone,
Long time no see
China-US agreement will start soon. Probably will be enforced due to the Trump (re)-election is coming. How the Ag market will react ?
=> Lean Hogs is very cheap compared to European & Chinese lean hogs. I would have any short and maybe go long, long calendar ?
=> Wheat could benefit from the trade agreement, Chinese likely to buy some SWW which has no future market
They might also go MWE/KW. Term strucure is already very bullish. No clear trade for me
=> Soybean could benefit from that. Long term structure ? Backmonth are already high. Long soybean ?
=> Crush spread, could be a short given that chinese will buy more soybean tham meal/oil
=> Buy cotton / ethanol. My fund view is weak on these one, I don't know if it's a good idea
What do you think ? Any idea/comments ?
Long time no see
China-US agreement will start soon. Probably will be enforced due to the Trump (re)-election is coming. How the Ag market will react ?
=> Lean Hogs is very cheap compared to European & Chinese lean hogs. I would have any short and maybe go long, long calendar ?
=> Wheat could benefit from the trade agreement, Chinese likely to buy some SWW which has no future market
They might also go MWE/KW. Term strucure is already very bullish. No clear trade for me=> Soybean could benefit from that. Long term structure ? Backmonth are already high. Long soybean ?
=> Crush spread, could be a short given that chinese will buy more soybean tham meal/oil
=> Buy cotton / ethanol. My fund view is weak on these one, I don't know if it's a good idea
What do you think ? Any idea/comments ?
-Hogs is a no brainer, we just need to go through the inventory first : Long a deffered spread I would say.
-For wheat, I also read somewhere that China may actually need SRW but the price is too high.
-Soybean is already fully priced as if stocks were huge this year and non existent next year. I wouldn'go long a 20/21 crop spread for sure.
-Crush spread can be a good idea but beware of soyoil rally.
-Cotton is also priced a bit like soybean( inverted in the next season ), so it is hard to be long deffereds. Ethanol needs China buying just to survive in terms of margin.
-For wheat, I also read somewhere that China may actually need SRW but the price is too high.
-Soybean is already fully priced as if stocks were huge this year and non existent next year. I wouldn'go long a 20/21 crop spread for sure.
-Crush spread can be a good idea but beware of soyoil rally.
-Cotton is also priced a bit like soybean( inverted in the next season ), so it is hard to be long deffereds. Ethanol needs China buying just to survive in terms of margin.
01-28-20 : Out @ -11.25. Good trade. Funny how when I recheck what made me take this trade, I wouldn't have pulled the trigger today.
