Ag trade ideas

Pretty bad day for me.

06/28/19 : I shorted some ZC U19-Z19 @ -5.75( No... I didn't catch the spike ).

- It got less beaten than other spreads because it is the most sensitive to old crop lower stocks but new crop higher acreage...
- USDA just announced a resurvey because these acreages include Prevent plant acres.
-Seasonals.
 
TraDaToR said:
06/13/2019 : Short Cattle Aug/Oct/Dec fly @ 3.175.

- High Level like in 2017 except the curve was more bullish at the time.
- Big supply coming in summer which should pressure the front spreads.
- Seasonals.
More...

07/01/2019 : Out @ 3.73.

Trading is tough lately.
 
07/01/2019 : Short HE J20/M20 @ -7.8.

- Hogs inventory are huge and China is doing everything it can not to source in the US( deals with Brazil...).
- The front of the curve is plunging and J/M seems overvalued.
- Seasonals.
 
TraDaToR said:
05/21/19 : Long ZC U20/Z20 @ -1

- The planting delays are now making the situation worse than in 2013.
- Sep is undervalued as Z19/Z20 was a speculators' favorite last week.
- The level is quite low and as an intercrop spread, it has bigger potential...
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07/01/2019 : Out @ 3.

Probably one of the most painful winning trades of my life. I think USDA killed the bull market until the reality of the resurvey is known.
 
I am long Cocoa, but huge increase in open interest, thinking reversing might be way to go. Last nine years been in a range, so monies been less that other markets but spreads still working out. This is a market when large open interest shows either topping or bottoming.
 
07/02/2019 : Long MWK20-2*ZWK20+KWK20 @ -0.25.

- ZW is overvalued against pretty much in the world and the higher protein wheats should prevail in the long run.
- K undervalued on both MW and KW.
- 20 years low for this spread.
 
Seriously ZC U/Z looks like a mega sell to me at these levels. U is not part of the potential failing crop whereas U/Z is overbought compared to Z/H and even N/U in the delivery period. The only potential upside is coming from dumb money piling on corn first expiry...Which can actually be a threat.
 
07/07/2019 : Short MWU19 / KWU19 @ 93.4.

- KW N/U went crazy yesterday and the feed demand of KW should pick up.
- HRS conditions increased yesterday and the stocks are plentiful.
- Seasonals.
 
TraDaToR said:
05/17/19 : Long ZC K20/N20 @ -4.5.

- The weather forecast is terrible for those who haven't been able to plant their corn( almost everybody in the eastern corn belt )
- K/N normally shows a smaller carry.
- K/N didn't move with Z/K or very little to date.
More...

07/19/2019 : Out @ -3.25.
 
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