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SERENDIPITY
People moving along life's pathways encounter changes both anticipated and unanticipated. Operating in the ag world delivers its fair share of unexpected results. Operators learn to live with dashed hopes but also to enjoy unexpected largesse. It has been a while since cattle owners were surprised with unexpected bounty.
The expectation meter would be likely to reveal a skeptical pool of livestock owners. The beef packers seem in control of the market and all of the margins available for bringing cattle through the beef pipeline. This has left the breeders, stocker operators and cattle feeders with little to squeeze from the operations where the one constant seems to be higher operating cost and now rising feed costs.
The future is always built on hope and several positive impacts are lighting up a more optimistic future but you can't take hopes to the bank. The Mexican tariff deal is resolved or at least for now, but that does not do anything for the current situation, it only stops a harm. The Chinese trade war is far from over but does hold the promise, if resolved, of providing large outlets for both pork and beef.
Hidden in all the analysis and discussion about weather and its impact on higher feed cost, is a solid positive benefit to those who run cattle on grasslands. A map of the United States would for once be absent from isolated pockets or large regions of drought. The winter moisture and now spring follow-up rains have the nation's pastures in prime shape. There will be little incentive to rush the replacement cattle to market during this summer period of weak prices. Feedlot numbers may be dipping under last year as summer placement slow.
The headlines are full of the new non-meat offerings both plant and lab based but people forget veggie burgers have been around for years. Shares in Beyond Beef's public offering have now moved up 600% in less than a month. The meat industry will take the competition in stride and bank on the substantive fact that beef is hard to beat. Protein from meat sources is not something of which to be ashamed and is not easily deliver by a plant diet. It is a quality product providing solid nutritional sustanence to consumers.
As the says goes, "every dog has his day" and awaiting the day is the secret to staying in the fight. While it may have been a long time since finding an unforeseen windfall, experience tells us it may come when least expected. Serendipity would not be possible without the deep seated feeling "I am afraid this may not happen to me", and the exhileration caused by an unforeseen positive event would be lacking. "
