Ag trade ideas

05/21/19 : Long ZC U20/Z20 @ -1

- The planting delays are now making the situation worse than in 2013.
- Sep is undervalued as Z19/Z20 was a speculators' favorite last week.
- The level is quite low and as an intercrop spread, it has bigger potential...
 
Pension_Admin said:
Just curious. Is there a concrete relationship between corn planting delay and the lower corn yield?
More...

Agronomically very much. Farmers have to switch to shorter cycle varieties which have less time to build vegetative mass hence lower yield potential. Also flowering will be pushed to the hottest period of the year and early freeze risks are higher.
That said some of these things may not happen if the weather turns out perfect. But we are clearly reducing upside potential and increasing chances of lower yields.
I think USDA will be agressive on the June WASDE showing 5bpa or more yield reduction.
 
05/22/19 : Long ZS U19/X19/F20 butterfly @ -1.5.

- The rumored new MFP payment on soybeans would further increase switch from corn to soy.
- CME increases storage charges on nov expiry, so even without the MFP, X/F has the potential to go in a deeper contango than U/X.
 
I just want to say I have never learned so much about corn and farming before. I know I am just scratching the surface until I can see how the entire process from crop planting to the final consumptions. I am loving this.

Thank you TraDaToR for the thread!
 
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