Ag trade ideas

[TraDaToR]

 

[TraDaToR]

Just put a reverse ethanol crush spread, Long 1 EHK19-2*ZCK19 @ 2217.

- The US is making pressure on China to lower ethanol tariffs.
- The profit margin of ethanol is still really low even if it increased lately.
- Corn is the laggard in the latest export inspections.

Out @ 2687. Small gain.

 

[BorsBamse]

Out @ 2687. Small gain.

How do you typically size your positions?

 

[TraDaToR]

Generally, I am looking to have almost the same risk/reward in $ terms on each trade. So my size is really dependent on the product. When I am really confident in a trade, I may look for 1.5 times my average risk/reward.

 

[maxinger]

View attachment 200651

beside trading Lean Hog from CME, where else can we trade Hog futures?
I doubt we can trade futures from China Exchange.

 

[TraDaToR]

Eurex or EEX has some pork contracts, active but extremely thin last time I checked.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short RC K/N/U butterfly @ 4.

- Ample supplies in Vietnam and Brazil's Conilon crop.
- K/N overvalued compared to the rest of the curve.
- Arabica/Robusta spread quite low.
-Seasonals

Out @ -6. A bit of heat at the start but then it behaved like planned.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short CT H20/N20 @ 0.65.

- New crop spreads rallied a bit too much based on planting intentions.
- Cotton plantings advance seems normal.
- Seasonals.

 

[BorsBamse]

I'll barge in on your thread here with my first trade:
Long KEN19-ZWU19 @ -37.75

- Seasonals
- Stretched CoT positioning, slightly more so in Kansas vs. Chicago contract
- Spread close to all-time lows

Anything I'm missing?

 

[TraDaToR]

Hello BorsBamse,

If I hadn't already been destroyed 2 times this year on this spread, perhaps I would consider it. Your points and methodology are valid. IMO It has a positive expectancy.

A few remarks though :
- Why are using 2 differents expiries? You are another layer of uncertainty. Some considerations linked to the specific expiry, external to your logic, may influence the spread now. In this case, it's OK since they are of the same crop and consecutive, but still...
- Warehouse stocks of SRW are way lower than HRW.
- Seasonals are on your side but the stats are not super convincing.