Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR · Mar 29, 2019

Short ZC/KW @ -67.75.

- At this ratio, wheat can start replacing corn in animal feed.
- Corn numbers just came in much higher than expected...

TraDaToR · Apr 1, 2019

Short canola X/F @ -6.8.

- China stops importing canadian canola.
- Seasonals.
-N/X very low compared to X/F.

destriero · Apr 2, 2019

July beans to touch 960 by June.

TraDaToR · Apr 3, 2019

destriero said:
July beans to touch 960 by June.

I don't think so. The soybean ending stocks will be near 1000 millions tonnes. Previously the record was around 600. The feeding demand for soybean meal is down 40% in China due to ASF.

Even with a resolution of the conflict, I don't see it going that high again, but I don't trade outrights.

TraDaToR · Apr 3, 2019

I meant 1000 millions bushels.

TraDaToR · Apr 3, 2019

By the way, I just shorted ZS X/H @-15.75.

- Huge carryout, lower chinese soymeal consumption.
- Price risk on the outrights is on the downside as everybody assume the trade war will soon end.
- CME increases storage charges from 0.165 c/b/d to 0.265 c/b/d from Nov expiry on.

optquant · Apr 9, 2019

for wheat, canola ,what happening in China is also worth watching, drought for now
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253492-el-nino-back-watch-impact-agriculture-sector-china

TraDaToR · Apr 11, 2019

TraDaToR said:
Long Hogs K/M @ -8.05.

- I needed to take part of this ASF craze at least once, right?
- Apollo J/K is launched.
-K/M still at sea level or even deeper in the ocean.

Out@ -9.450. Not good. Spreads really trade independently from outrights on livestock. If someone has an explanation for the drop in J/K and then K/M, I am all hears...

Fundaman · Apr 12, 2019

TraDaToR said:
Out@ -9.450. Not good. Spreads really trade independently from outrights on livestock. If someone has an explanation for the drop in J/K and then K/M, I am all hears...

I think it is because the deal with China gets postponed all the time. 2 months ago there were high hopes that China would by massive amounts of soybeans, corn, sorghum, ethanol, pork etc you name it. They bought a bit of beans that they needed anyway and some pork but nearly not as much as the market had hoped. So the longs that got into J and K are now moving to more deffered contracts hoping the same....

TraDaToR · Apr 12, 2019

I agree for beans but not necessarily for pork. I heard yesterday the 77700 MT sales to China is the biggest ever. The demand is really there now. The consequences of ASF and drop in chinese pork production aren't fully understood at this point. IMO the justification of dropping spreads in hogs have more to do with funds flow( which is pretty much what you said ), but also index convergence and may expiry illiquidity.