Ag trade ideas

Long NY cocoa U/Z19 @ -2.

- The back of the curve has shifted drastically to an inversion in the last month. Commercials must be thinking 19/20 S§D will be much tighter. Didn't find anything in the news though.
-Seasonals
 
Hi,

Can Sb please explain why the Carry in Kansas City Wheat, i Mean the ZH spread is quite double like the Chicago wheat. I mean what is the fundamental reason.

Kansas city ZH spread is -22
Chicago ZH Spread is -12

Is the VRS ?

Thanks

Greg
 
I would say it is because of stocks and current pace of exports of SRW vs HRW, but it should come back to normal later.

Funny you bring this because I actually bought KWK19-WK19 this morning @ 2.5.
- Higher protein wheat should be in demand in the winter and spring when Russia is exhausted
- The level is low around 0.
 
With the VSR detriggering the funds that are trading the carry (ie: short dec,long h) have no more reason to stay in that position (Remeber how strong was WZ this week vs the rest). But it is still in place for KC and not even risking of detrigger. The SRW to Egypt clearly was the catalyst for this move.
Indeed, if the Russian export pace slows down the HRW can have a chance. But we need to get first the ARG wheat out of the way and till then a lot of shorts in Chicago wants to move to KC which is a smaller market.

We are heading towards an interesting period...
 
TraDaToR said:
I would say it is because of stocks and current pace of exports of SRW vs HRW, but it should come back to normal later.

Funny you bring this because I actually bought KWK19-WK19 this morning @ 2.5.
- Higher protein wheat should be in demand in the winter and spring when Russia is exhausted
- The level is low around 0.
More...

hahah, I had this trade on my radar, I prefer N not K, I out my alarm in 0... then I think ok Friday, I go home I will pick same on Monday... and than Boom.. the KwN9-Wkn9 goes to 7.. Fuck..

All this week, was quite huge from the Roll (Goldman)... So let see what next week gives us.

Thanks
 
TraDaToR said:
Just exited 3/4 @ -15.5. Freefall in historical no man's land.:cool:
More...

Nice Trade.. All the hogs spreads are in Huge deviation... On the upper or the lower side... GJM on the upper side... MNQ and MN on the lower... I just cover some MV... they were also in deviation.

Hog market was volatile in this roll, and the spreads are all gone. I have same left in ZG.. long from -8 and -9

Greg
 
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