Ag trade ideas

[TraDaToR]

I just went long spring wheat Dec / short feed wheat Nov @ -20.2 $/ton spread( feed premium...). I hedged currency exposure short GBP.USD cash.

- MW crop not as huge as we thought a few weeks ago
-The arbitrage is open now for virtually any kind of wheat to enter the UK and end the shortage.

Out @ -15.3. We are getting too close to expiry on feed wheat.

 

[TraDaToR]

Went long @ -4.3.

-Low level compared to the last 20 years but not further back.
-Z/G seems to be bottoming.

Out @ -2.25 on a gut feel that now that oct is expired, Z/H will move freely and possibly go down again.

 

[TraDaToR]

Long EHZ18-2*ZCZ18 @ 581( notional ).

- Profit margin on ethanol crush without DDG is almost null.
- Ethanol/RBOB Gasoline reversing.
- E15 year round.

 

[Rachmaninov]

+
Raw sugar is up +36 % in the last month (Brazilian will produce sugar instead of ethanol)

 

[Rachmaninov]

-
Contango is damn high on ethanol and us stocks are very high

Overall, I think it's a good trade

 

[TraDaToR]

Yes. I know the supply picture of ethanol isn't going my way, but the overall energy bullishness and news are supportive.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short ZW K19/U19 @ -16.75.

- SRW will be in less demand than high protein wheat later in the marketing year.
- Acreage should at least stay the same next year.
- Seasonals

 

[TraDaToR]

Went long a ZM +Z-3*H+3*N-V double butterfly @ -2 . A combo of every under/overvalued parts of the ZM19 curve, which is giving this current awkward shape.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short ZO Z/H @ 8.4.

- The level is almost as high as 2013 when S&D was much tighter.
- It's forming a head and shoulders formation.
- There have been good weather in Canada and the harvest is almost wrapped up. The harvest problems that caused the spike up have alleviated.

 

[TraDaToR]

Long Sugar May/Jul/Oct19 Butterfly @ 0.08

-Low value
-Seasonals

Out @ 0.12. Not much, especially after commissions.