Ag trade ideas

I went short sugar as well as coffee, my entry price on sugar was 13.86. I'm happy to have a short position now somewhere near the highs but after it has already started turning or so it appears at this stage. It's all the rules that I should be following as the major long-term downtrend, as defined by the 200 day moving average, is trending quite strongly down and it's more likely than not that the down trend will resume. Typically penetration of the 200 day moving average sloping this steeply is around 6-7% before it returns back below the trend. The long upper shadow on the 24th of October was the first warning sign and then the second was another evening star the next session. The uptrend might still resume but I want to follow my rules (trade with the trend) and research (6 out of 7 moves up through the 200 DMA failed over the last 10 years futures data by a manual inspection). Target on downside is just above 11 (say 11.20-11.50.
 
TraDaToR said:
Hello, can someone share a chart of the Dec18 London cocoa / NY cocoa spread in USD or GBP please?
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Something like that (LCCZ8 * GBPUSD / CCZ8):
sg2018102941067.gif
?
 
Yes. Thank you. I don't use a chart analysis software these days. I just use TT and seasonalgo. I need to get a software like prophet X or esignal to compare assets in different currencies. What would you do? hold until near expiration in 2 weeks or not?
 
Cat88 said:
I went short sugar as well as coffee, my entry price on sugar was 13.86. I'm happy to have a short position now somewhere near the highs but after it has already started turning or so it appears at this stage. It's all the rules that I should be following as the major long-term downtrend, as defined by the 200 day moving average, is trending quite strongly down and it's more likely than not that the down trend will resume. Typically penetration of the 200 day moving average sloping this steeply is around 6-7% before it returns back below the trend. The long upper shadow on the 24th of October was the first warning sign and then the second was another evening star the next session. The uptrend might still resume but I want to follow my rules (trade with the trend) and research (6 out of 7 moves up through the 200 DMA failed over the last 10 years futures data by a manual inspection). Target on downside is just above 11 (say 11.20-11.50.
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got stopped on sugar on the initial move. (14.03), still short coffee. I have started adding every 3% move in the price (in my favour) to every position I take and stop out if my breakeven (average) price is hit. I don't have a generic exit plan (that mirrors the adding plan) but the 40 DMA or a previous major low / high (in the case of coffee that is circa 100). Or if I get to an amount that I am happy with (e.g. this one trade is contributing to my account being up 20-30% and I should be happy with that) then I'll just get out and be happy with that.

I'm just focusing on this type of trading opportunity now, so i'll post for those opportunities.
 
stopped out at 1.1662. very disappointing given I am out at zero (no loss but no gain) after catching a 8% move in the sell off from 125. Friday's session looks to show that to be a good decision though, the price up again. I'm almost tempted to use this to get short again near the 200 DMA but I need a bit more time to think about it so no action for me right now.
 
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Canola still looking negative and this really start to look like a big negative breaking down below 490 with a couple of attempts to recover so far failing. Just watching for now because the price has been tearing through short stops above 490, so I think maybe the best entry is to try go short at 491 with a stop at 495 and I'm guessing if it sustains the break there'll be room to run on the downside.
 
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