Ag trade ideas

[ryker]

I have accumulated ZO N/U @ -7.5.

-The stocks to use ratio is record low this year but contango is rich.
-If acreage increase, new crop September will drop.

How do you choose which contracts to trade? Just asking because the September maturity is usually lightly traded so at the moment I simply ignore it.

 

[ryker]

Taking 1/3 of my position out @ 0.21.
Some elements of my strategy captures movements during the last month before FND. I like to trade these periods as they're quite volatile.

Out another 1/3 @ -0.21, keeping the rest for now.

 

[TraDaToR]

How do you choose which contracts to trade? Just asking because the September maturity is usually lightly traded so at the moment I simply ignore it.

View attachment 184775

Well. I guess Sep can considered the new crop even if ( I think ) oats is sometimes harvested as early as June. It is traditionally the expiry with the harvest discount. That's why I chose this spread. But yes, it took me 3 days to get the desired position.

 

[i960]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...a-as-sucden-boss-stops-trading-after-50-years

 

[TraDaToR]

I just went long the London cocoa/ NY cocoa Dec18 spread @ -86 GBP based on historical extremes.

 

[i960]

I just went long the London cocoa/ NY cocoa Dec18 spread @ -86 GBP based on historical extremes.

Rolling dec (3days before exp) monthly arb w/ 2+3SD regression channels:

How are you hedging the GBP leg, spot or futures?

 

[TraDaToR]

Long GBP futures, not a perfect hedge. 5 K$ or so of difference in notional. I know nothing about currency futures , but a friend told me the difference spot vs futures relates to the relative interest rates, hence the hedge is the same in the end( apart from the fact that it is not the perfect amount in notional ).

 

[TraDaToR]

Long K-3N+3V-H Raw sugar double butterfly @ -0.4 on unusual curve shape.
Lost a few ticks chasing good fills...

Out @ -1.04. Gosh...That was a crappy trade. One day I will have to calculate what is my P§L by product on those spread trades. One thing is sure, sugar is not on the top of the list, softs in general are not.

 

[TraDaToR]

Long CC N/U @ -24.

- N/U is close to the low range of historical datas while the rest of the curve is bullish
- K has a super bullish delivery period

 

[TraDaToR]

Long GBP futures, not a perfect hedge. 5 K$ or so of difference in notional. I know nothing about currency futures , but a friend told me the difference spot vs futures relates to the relative interest rates, hence the hedge is the same in the end( apart from the fact that it is not the perfect amount in notional ).

Now the discount is close to -120 GBP on dec... That is a once in a decade opportunity...This is violent.