Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Just gotta mind that KN correlation (if it's the ultimate driver of it)... Not sure I'd want to step in front of this myself, but I trust price more than fundamentals...
At the given level, for the last x days ?
Lumber finds buying interest at the 40 day moving average.
I think lumber has given me enough confidence that it's holding at the 40 day moving average to go long.
I like the fact that it's a relatively smooth trend and the pull back has been relatively modest with no major danger signals aside from the candle on the 7th of March where the bears tried to take it below the 40 day moving average.
I will be watching tonight at the open to see if I can get it a bit closer to 486 but Thursday's price signals were very bullish and I'm keen to test the market with one unit long.
I think lumber has given me enough confidence that it's holding at the 40 day moving average to go long.
I like the fact that it's a relatively smooth trend and the pull back has been relatively modest with no major danger signals aside from the candle on the 7th of March where the bears tried to take it below the 40 day moving average.
I will be watching tonight at the open to see if I can get it a bit closer to 486 but Thursday's price signals were very bullish and I'm keen to test the market with one unit long.
Sugar starting to turn nasty
The charts are really starting to turn ugly for sugar.
The unusual event on the 27th and 28th of January aside the market attempted to re-establish a position above 13.50 with the support which had previously held at the level not providing any protection this time.
I had thought that the market was just taking out the stops but the considerable amount of work the bulls have done to try and resurrect a rally was snuffed out on the 31st of January and the 8th of February.
They seem to be doing well but slowly like a boa constrictor tightening it's grip on the airways the bulls have run out of life and I suspect a big move to the downside could be underway.
I'm just looking at how to get short and the 40 day moving average is today at 13.37.
Target on the downside initially would be 10.20 and below that a long-term support line comes in around 8.10 before we start looking at the low from April 1999.
The charts are really starting to turn ugly for sugar.
The unusual event on the 27th and 28th of January aside the market attempted to re-establish a position above 13.50 with the support which had previously held at the level not providing any protection this time.
I had thought that the market was just taking out the stops but the considerable amount of work the bulls have done to try and resurrect a rally was snuffed out on the 31st of January and the 8th of February.
They seem to be doing well but slowly like a boa constrictor tightening it's grip on the airways the bulls have run out of life and I suspect a big move to the downside could be underway.
I'm just looking at how to get short and the 40 day moving average is today at 13.37.
Target on the downside initially would be 10.20 and below that a long-term support line comes in around 8.10 before we start looking at the low from April 1999.
Wheat coming back to confirm a break of the 200 day moving average?
Wheat is making some appealing price movements recently with a sequence of higher lows and higher Highs since the December low near 420.
It broke impressively up through the 200 day moving average towards 520 before coming back to what looks like a consolidation to confirm the break.
I would like to buy around these levels with a stop around 460.
I expect it may dip towards the 470 region but if the lows can be sustained around these levels then I would expect a possible move towards 550 to test the high from the 3rd of July.
Wheat is making some appealing price movements recently with a sequence of higher lows and higher Highs since the December low near 420.
It broke impressively up through the 200 day moving average towards 520 before coming back to what looks like a consolidation to confirm the break.
I would like to buy around these levels with a stop around 460.
I expect it may dip towards the 470 region but if the lows can be sustained around these levels then I would expect a possible move towards 550 to test the high from the 3rd of July.
winners and losers (and thoughts) so far this year.
short ES @ 2347, stopped out at 2397. loss circa $2k. Still believe the market is going lower, had been looking for the market to fail but in retrospect probably should have waited to see if the market traded through the big figure.
long SB @ 14.99 sell 14.34. loss $728. went long in the run up to the 6 month high on 17th November. liked the price action then added another couple of times. then exited the first unit at a loss at 14.34
long SB @ 15.47 and 13.49, exited at 13.41. bad loss, failed to cut long position and resulted in a large loser (circa $2,300 on the first and $89 on the second unit). glad to cut the loss quickly on the second unit but big disappointment to make two fundamental trading mistakes - let the loss run so long and add to a losing position. believed too hard it was going to make a move through the 200 DMA and repeat the four previous rallies. The price action seemed to be supportive but ultimately I was scared of not finding another winner.
sold ZNM18 @ 123.53, bought back @ 122.89 (apologies for notation, just using gmail trade confos). catching pieces of the downtrend. could have been more patient and just sat on it, built a larger position similar to cocoa but i suppose that's been the big lesson of the cocoa trade for me is the goal is get a big position on a smooth trend. about $600
sold ZNM18 @ 122.35, bought back @ 121.17. same as above. about + $1100
buy EH18 @1.50 sell at 1.48. loss about $600. liked the price action, was a bit nervous about the last candle before i exited so just followed my instinct. price has since gone on to higher highs, although in retrospect i feel following those type of warning signs saved me on the sugar trade (of even more loss) so would probably do the same again.
open trades - long cocoa. has been a textbook example of what i am trying to do, focus now is sitting with the trade as long as it remains a winner and look for other smooth trends crossing the 200 DMA in a convincing way then build into the position.
short ES @ 2347, stopped out at 2397. loss circa $2k. Still believe the market is going lower, had been looking for the market to fail but in retrospect probably should have waited to see if the market traded through the big figure.
long SB @ 14.99 sell 14.34. loss $728. went long in the run up to the 6 month high on 17th November. liked the price action then added another couple of times. then exited the first unit at a loss at 14.34
long SB @ 15.47 and 13.49, exited at 13.41. bad loss, failed to cut long position and resulted in a large loser (circa $2,300 on the first and $89 on the second unit). glad to cut the loss quickly on the second unit but big disappointment to make two fundamental trading mistakes - let the loss run so long and add to a losing position. believed too hard it was going to make a move through the 200 DMA and repeat the four previous rallies. The price action seemed to be supportive but ultimately I was scared of not finding another winner.
sold ZNM18 @ 123.53, bought back @ 122.89 (apologies for notation, just using gmail trade confos). catching pieces of the downtrend. could have been more patient and just sat on it, built a larger position similar to cocoa but i suppose that's been the big lesson of the cocoa trade for me is the goal is get a big position on a smooth trend. about $600
sold ZNM18 @ 122.35, bought back @ 121.17. same as above. about + $1100
buy EH18 @1.50 sell at 1.48. loss about $600. liked the price action, was a bit nervous about the last candle before i exited so just followed my instinct. price has since gone on to higher highs, although in retrospect i feel following those type of warning signs saved me on the sugar trade (of even more loss) so would probably do the same again.
open trades - long cocoa. has been a textbook example of what i am trying to do, focus now is sitting with the trade as long as it remains a winner and look for other smooth trends crossing the 200 DMA in a convincing way then build into the position.
Nah it’s just aggregate volume for the whole thing due to the way eSignal sums spread volume when you use multiple spreads in a chart. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it in this situation. In the bottom chart it’s the real volume for the KN exchange spread. I just have it as a default study on charts to generally use for spotting potential chop vs reversal areas. Not super useful for spreads unless it’s a simple calendar.
Long 1 ZWK18 at 476