Ag trade ideas

Rachmaninov said:
Long time no see my Dear Forum^^

Meats spreads are going crazy !
Any idea why we have this messy moves ?
And why LC/FC/LH have currently a similar behaviour ?

I bought some LH V/Z, got stop loss and now I wonder how to play the game.
I would like to buy it again on low level + seasonality

What do you thing ?

@Autospreader
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I don’t generally trade hog spreads because of the way cash settlements work over there.

In live cattle the market was looking for huge oct marketing’s and isn’t getting them. Cash has maybe bottomed and turned higher. Bull spreads won’t work until after FND ever really, because everyone is generally already long and can’t trade past FND so then the pros that can come in and make money.

Feeder cattle have been on a tear and were and are relatively cheap vs live cattle. I am currently trading a 4:2:2 crush with lej:gfv:zcz
 
Thanks, very interesting !

When you say, "huge oct marketing's", you mean a lot of live cattle coming to the market ?
I totaly agree on bull spreads & FND, I d like to be a pro.

I didnt check the feed crush for a long time and for whatever reason I have a 4:2:1 ratio in my system. I also see that than M/F/H & Q/H/K are even below your J/V/Z. Why did you choose J/V/Z ?
 
Rachmaninov said:
Thanks, very interesting !

When you say, "huge oct marketing's", you mean a lot of live cattle coming to the market ?
I totaly agree on bull spreads & FND, I d like to be a pro.

I didnt check the feed crush for a long time and for whatever reason I have a 4:2:1 ratio in my system. I also see that than M/F/H & Q/H/K are even below your J/V/Z. Why did you choose J/V/Z ?
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I mainly concentrate on settlement month feeders because I have a good pulse of the cash feeder market, however for movement you’d want to go out atleast to X feeders maybe H would be smoother
 
I am currently short H/long K, my models are very very bearish on these spreads.
But currently it has just been painful^^
What do you thing of these expiries ?
 
Not big enough :-).
I do follow a large portfolio of commos spreads + Eurodollar which is my main market. Only started commos spreading recently, really like it so far!
 
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