Ag trade ideas

Long SBK18/SBN18 @ -0.18.

- New tariffs on ethanol imports in Brazil will make the mills switch to more ethanol than sugar in the near future.
- Front of the curve( Oct/Mar ) is at historical average while May/Jul is low.
- Mar/May has started to move a bit last month.
 
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Here's a Feeder Cattle Calendar Spread that I shorted just after the open on Sept 20, and literally came within a single tic of getting stopped out on - getting near to my profit target now. I use modeled volatility and trading range to set stop-loss and profit targets. In hindsight I could have been a bit more patient with my entry...

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GF is quite hard to trade based on the forward curve. Even in the liquid front months, todays' curve may be completely different from yesterdays'. Plus it is driven/influenced by the cash index in the last month.

Your technical models may work better in this volatile environment.
 
TraDaToR said:
Your technical models may work better in this volatile environment.
More...

I tread quite lightly and take few trades when it comes to livestock and cotton. I really have to have a high confidence threshold...
 
What are the easiest market for you ?

Currently Robusta Coffee is my big looser

And I am afraid of meats because the curve is such mess (because you cant store the stuff)
 
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