Just following up on this.ZM F18/H18 has moved a lot in July because H is becoming the first "brazilian discount" month. Apparently,it is a structural change due to south brazil harbors . So well, in my book, this trade is still a good one because of the low risk but F18/H18 moves won't have much influence on Z17/H18.
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
I was quite bearish in early june that i sold a couple of conctracts on the sept wheat. mainly due to a seasonal pattern that i found consistent. But the stoploss was hit (the margin).
Now i'm developing the idea that the whole grain sector is held up by the weak dollar, relatively high cost of energy and probably the expected shrinking subsides policy by trump. I dont believe much in the day by day "crop development" madness.
I expect the sector to be bearish/lateran until oct, then a strong buy if the dollar stay weak
what do you guys think?
Now i'm developing the idea that the whole grain sector is held up by the weak dollar, relatively high cost of energy and probably the expected shrinking subsides policy by trump. I dont believe much in the day by day "crop development" madness.
I expect the sector to be bearish/lateran until oct, then a strong buy if the dollar stay weak
what do you guys think?
I would say that the grain sector is held by unhappy farmer refusing to sell
They are selling what they need to cover their bills
I dont think energy cost is a driver or shrinking subisidies (does he do something ?) is a factor
I am bullish wheat, markets is in an ultra bearish mode even if we have average stock on use ration (in the main exporters) AND bad weather on Canada and maybe Australia
They are selling what they need to cover their bills
I dont think energy cost is a driver or shrinking subisidies (does he do something ?) is a factor
I am bullish wheat, markets is in an ultra bearish mode even if we have average stock on use ration (in the main exporters) AND bad weather on Canada and maybe Australia
Exited this trade with a 4 ticks gain. Even with the low risk, this trade isn't worth it. Crop conditions are improving for soybeans and the fundamentals are too bearish for soymeal. Even if the max risk is 20 ticks the max profit also is the same...
Short soybean X/long soybean F
Go to hell soybean
Go to hell soybean
Long Feeder Cattle Oct17/Nov17 spread @ -0.575.
- The spread is in the low range historically while Q/U, U/V and X/H are in the high/middle range.
- The years when V/X was at this level in august were contango years.
- The Feeder index is much higher than futures.
- Little hammer on daily charts today.
- The spread is in the low range historically while Q/U, U/V and X/H are in the high/middle range.
- The years when V/X was at this level in august were contango years.
- The Feeder index is much higher than futures.
- Little hammer on daily charts today.
I just put a new long term trade. -MWH18+2*KWH18-ZWH18 @ 199.75. The wheat class butterfly.
-KW too undervalued compared to ZW and MW
-KW H18 seems undervalued and MWH18 overvalued on their respective curves.
-MW conditions have been improving and the stocks to use ratio is nowhere near 2007 when MW exploded.
-KW too undervalued compared to ZW and MW
-KW H18 seems undervalued and MWH18 overvalued on their respective curves.
-MW conditions have been improving and the stocks to use ratio is nowhere near 2007 when MW exploded.