Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Do you know all the reports they have ? Or do you check if they have a report ?
1- Seasonality is not that good
2 - Level is an important factor and the spread is already really low !
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Between Oct 1 and Aug 14 next year, it is a 95 % winning spread on 37 years...It rarely gets any better...But you are right, it is already too high( or low depending on how you quote ) and that was the reason I was reluctant to take it...
These are all reports from them that i've googled
maybe the fundamental reason of the rise of the spread is the decreasing number of farrows and pig crop?
If you look at last 5 years you will see that the spread isn't high. Also this year other spreads (e.g. HEV-HEZ) were high too.
But maybe the end of october is a better entry point?
Also 10.000 looks like a good support so maybe it's worth entering here
On my graphic the seasonality is really not that good. I dont think 37 years is the relevant time frame. Or that winrate is the best indicator to trade. However, I feel there is something more between my data and seasonalgo ?
The datas seems quite the same...
So what are your metrics to judge a good seasonality? I did a previous attempt at seasonal trading a few years ago and at the time I used the window between the seasonal high and lows of the spread and I found it was much less reliable than what I am doing this year: Get the smaller window between the seasonal high and low where spreads are all moving together up or down( which translates in the highest % win )
So what are your metrics to judge a good seasonality? I did a previous attempt at seasonal trading a few years ago and at the time I used the window between the seasonal high and lows of the spread and I found it was much less reliable than what I am doing this year: Get the smaller window between the seasonal high and low where spreads are all moving together up or down( which translates in the highest % win )
I like the sharpe ratio of the returns. Winrate can be unreliable when you have big losses for small gains. For instance, you have such situations when you are long contango in grains/oilseeds.