Ag trade ideas

bone · Jun 16, 2015

FCXoptions said:
Does anybody have any thoughts on the Nov/Jan Feeder Cattle spread? It seems to be quite high compared to where it historically is. Last year it spiked big going into October, but before that it wasn't near the current level. Actually, Barchart shows it spiked, but for some reason Scarrtrading doesn't show that same move. Not sure what's up

I sure as hell wouldn't try to time this beast and attempt to pick a top on it for the time being.

FCXoptions · Jun 16, 2015

Are any of you all long cotton right now? I had a buddy that works for a firm tell me there was something up with the planting. Going to call him after work and get the scoop.

bone · Jun 16, 2015

Cotton is an adult swim. Just saying. The classic Cotton spread is July - Dec.

bone · Jun 16, 2015

Just for future reference - absent USDA or meteorological data or other such strong fundamental drivers; Cotton follows the US Dollar pretty well.

bone · Jun 16, 2015

TraDaToR · Jun 17, 2015

Beware that China is expected to start selling its gigantic stocks so it should pressure the market down.

FCXoptions · Jun 17, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Beware that China is expected to start selling its gigantic stocks so it should pressure the market down.

a cotton stockpile? Well that definitely might be concern for a move down lol

TraDaToR · Jun 19, 2015

Long Sep / Short Nov Robusta coffee @ -12 as a propagation of what is happening in front month Jul. Whether it is because of El Nino in Vietnam or simply the roll( Just read this from a specialist... ), there is no reason it wouldn't affect Sep as well in due time. Plus the risk is really assymetric here...

Rachmaninov · Jun 19, 2015

@TraDaToR
I just check your trade and I find that if the spread follow the same trip as the last expiries it should decrease after the 6 th july.
It's not that assymetrical because it can goes to -40

P.S. : Does everyone consider that this spread is at -12 because for me its +12 (NOV-SEP) ?

TraDaToR · Jun 19, 2015

Rachmaninov said:
@TraDaToR
I just check your trade and I find that if the spread follow the same trip as the last expiries it should decrease after the 6 th july.
It's not that assymetrical because it can goes to -40

P.S. : Does everyone consider that this spread is at -12 because for me its +12 (NOV-SEP) ?

You mean Sep/nov from previous years or previous expiries?

Right now Jul/sep is at 110 so 38 to 122 R/R is assymetrical enough.

I quote them as most Platform and old pit traders do , front - deferred. I used to quote it like you the IB way.