Ag trade ideas

I have a question: Is March 2016 a meaningful date in the RFS mandate regarding biodiesel? For some reason, soyoil Mar/May 16 is trading at a strong inverse...
 
Yeah, you definitely called that. I was thinking if a down move happened that it could really kill the spread fast since it is the front month now. Good call on your part
 
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TraDaToR said:
I have a question: Is March 2016 a meaningful date in the RFS mandate regarding biodiesel? For some reason, soyoil Mar/May 16 is trading at a strong inverse...
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I don't think so. Jun 1 was a deadline. There's another Nov 30 2015. All the RINs and volume obligations are calendar year. Maybe it's because of the South American supply coming on about that time?
 
bone said:
Any brave souls trading the July / Dec Cotton Spread ?
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Traded it earlier on this thread but we are getting to close to expiry for me...Plus the situation for new crop december is kind of unclear with Texas flood on one side and surplus in India on the other.
 
Brighton said:
I don't think so. Jun 1 was a deadline. There's another Nov 30 2015. All the RINs and volume obligations are calendar year. Maybe it's because of the South American supply coming on about that time?
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The curve is inverted from Mar 16 to Dec 16 since the RFS announcement. Prior to that it had a normal contango structure on all '16 months. I think( not sure ) it is just the kind of movement where all the most liquid contracts move up in unisson on a price shock and the less liquid spreads actually end up "showing" the move. It just takes time for the curve to get back in line...
 
TraDaToR said:
Long Oct/ Short Dec Soymeal @ -0.5 on a curve play. October is intercrop, sometimes at discount, sometimes at premium to dec but this year, the old crop inversion is steep and even Mar-May 16 are lower than Dec15...
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Out @ 5 finally. It was 1 tick from target one month ago.:)
 
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