Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR · Jun 2, 2015

Followed lx008 advice and closed my seasonal long Soymeal/ Short soyoil @ 9990.

Now long ZL N/Q @ -0.02 .

bone · Jun 2, 2015

Taking a loss is very, very important. I do it on a regular basis. In fact, I'm a card carrying holder of the capital preservation society.

TraDaToR · Jun 3, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Short Dec / Long Jan Soymeal @ 0.3.

Out@ 12. Trading is tough lately

TraDaToR · Jun 5, 2015

Short Mar / May 16 Soyoil @ 0.14

TraDaToR · Jun 5, 2015

Long Jul/short Aug Hogs @ 0.6

FCXoptions · Jun 5, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Out half of it @ 5. The rest soon in stratosphere hopefully.

Just closed out @ 6.8 for a nice 5.3 profit! I only had one on, so I am flat now. I debated on holding it until next week but figured I would go ahead and lock it in. If it pulls back I might enter again.

FCXoptions · Jun 5, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Long Jul/short Aug Hogs @ 0.6

I am looking at April/May 2016 on Hogs. If it comes back up some, I think it would be a good short. The seasonality seems to be pretty good over the past several years just looking back through the charts. I will sign up for Scarr and do a further back analysis though to really see and need to check fundamentals. That was just eyeballing the chart.

FCXoptions · Jun 7, 2015

FCXoptions said:
I am looking at April/May 2016 on Hogs. If it comes back up some, I think it would be a good short. The seasonality seems to be pretty good over the past several years just looking back through the charts. I will sign up for Scarr and do a further back analysis though to really see and need to check fundamentals. That was just eyeballing the chart.

OF COURSE as soon as I sell it immediately opens up higher lol whoops. Still very pleased regardless

TraDaToR · Jun 8, 2015

FCXoptions said:
I am looking at April/May 2016 on Hogs. If it comes back up some, I think it would be a good short. The seasonality seems to be pretty good over the past several years just looking back through the charts. I will sign up for Scarr and do a further back analysis though to really see and need to check fundamentals. That was just eyeballing the chart.

It seems indeed a good short. Backtest is OK and the spread is overvalued now. Optimum window July 9th - Mar( next year ) 6th.Beware May is not a really traded expiry.

TraDaToR · Jun 8, 2015

FCXoptions said:
Just closed out @ 6.8 for a nice 5.3 profit! I only had one on, so I am flat now. I debated on holding it until next week but figured I would go ahead and lock it in. If it pulls back I might enter again.

Beware that for this kind of trades ( front month bull spreads close to expiry ), when it starts going parabolic like that, the risk / reward really becomes asymmetrical. For example when you closed it out @ 6.8, it was much more likely to go to 10.6 than back to 3...