Ag trade ideas

Rachmaninov · Mar 23, 2015

TraDaToR said:
I have just created a comparative chart of all traded wheats in the world( same currency, same quantity ) and it seems australian wheat( NSW on Sydney futures exchange ) is quite expensive compared to the rest... Does it make sense? Do you know the reason?

I think there is no volume on NSW wheat. There is some on the other australian wheat.
Otherwise, you can have a big difference between wheat future prices because of both the FOB basis and the quality. For instance, CBOT wheat has such an enormous basis to wheat FOB gulf compared to Euronext wheat which is really close to its FOB (5 €/t).

TraDaToR · Mar 23, 2015

Rachmaninov said:
I think there is no volume on NSW wheat. There is some on the other australian wheat.
Otherwise, you can have a big difference between wheat future prices because of both the FOB basis and the quality. For instance, CBOT wheat has such an enormous basis to wheat FOB gulf compared to Euronext wheat which is really close to its FOB (5 €/t).

I guess it's the contrary. New South Wales( milling ) Wheat has a bit of volume but Western Australian no.

TraDaToR · Mar 23, 2015

FCXoptions said:
I have a buddy that works for a physical grain trading operation, I just sent him a text to see if he has any insight. I tried googling a little but was pretty unsuccessful. How significant of a price difference is it? The stats I found said they export about 80% of their wheat

May NSW wheat would be at 6.47 $ / Bushel if I configured my chart well. Paris milling 5.82$/B.

Rachmaninov · Mar 24, 2015

Yep, you right, and quality is low with "10.5% Protein".
Paris milling is currently very cheap and Europe is exporting really fast. But 0.63 $/b is not unlikely !

TraDaToR · Mar 24, 2015

Interesting Hightower report ahead of prospective plantings: http://www.cmegroup.com/education/f...rPUfGjI4ATctmNq+TFAwTG5toziV8R7PEJc1oytQQUhLh

But I think ZS Jul/Nov trading at a carry in the summer is quite a longshot...

TraDaToR · Mar 24, 2015

Long Oct/ Short Dec Soymeal @ -0.5 on a curve play. October is intercrop, sometimes at discount, sometimes at premium to dec but this year, the old crop inversion is steep and even Mar-May 16 are lower than Dec15...

TraDaToR · Mar 24, 2015

I don't know what is happening on white sugar front month, but my "arb" is not as arbish as it looked initially...:eek:

TraDaToR · Mar 24, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Out @ 3. Sep/Dec is oversold compared to the front and back of the curve and there is a major support between 5 and 0. Looking to reenter later but perhaps in the back of the curve.

I am much better at exiting than entering it seems. What is funny is I work much more on my entries...

FCXoptions · Mar 24, 2015

I am literally the complete opposite. I always get out early or way too late lol. I will cut a winner way short or let a winner turn into a loser....i'm working on it though lol.

thefuturestrader · Mar 24, 2015

Corn is quiet today, but it has been making some larger moves recently. I think the 6-week or so period of low volatility in corn is coming to an end. No idea which way it is headed, but I think we will see larger daily moves.