Ag trade ideas

Anybody tracking the big reversal in the June/July Hog spread?

upload_2015-3-24_14-45-25.png
 
TraDaToR said:
Long Oct/ Short Dec Soymeal @ -0.5 on a curve play. October is intercrop, sometimes at discount, sometimes at premium to dec but this year, the old crop inversion is steep and even Mar-May 16 are lower than Dec15...
More...

U/V @ 35 and Z/F @ 0. Last call for alcohol here...;)
 
That LEM:N15 spread is textbook mean reversion. That spread got out to a standard deviation or 2 away from the mean, and someone jumped in with some decent volume and brought it back. Very interesting.
 
I'm not really sure what's keeping hogs down. Last I looked, the cattle/hog spread has gone thru the roof.

I guess the substitution is a sign of a good economy. Meats are more optimistic than the stock market it seems.
 
Apparently( Common explanation around ) we have an oversupply of hogs at a time when exports are struggling because of the strong dollar. One thing is sure I won't try to catch that bottom a second time...LOL
 
I was talking to the owner of a feed mill in rural NE, and he had heard that some are worried that the hog market could absolutely fall apart in the middle of 2016. I asked him the reasoning, and he was saying they are predicting a massive oversupply. This is the first I've really heard of this, not really sure as to the reasoning behind it.
 
TraDaToR said:
Short May White Sugar / Long May Sugar 11 @ 28.38 ratio on correlation.
More...

Out @ 29.49. Another loser. It went straight to my stop. As Rachmaninov said, those same product spreads based on correlation shouldn't be done in the last month before expiry. Lesson learned.:(
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top