AAPL - Earnings May 1

Sounds like the AAPL corporate money that was supposed to be saved from the new tax cut bill isn't going to be used to CREATE US Jobs but instead is going to be used to buy more corporate stock.

Donnie Trump ain't gonna like this...... More companies will probably follow suit w/ buy backs
 
322170 said:
Sounds like the AAPL corporate money that was supposed to be saved from the new tax cut bill isn't going to be used to CREATE US Jobs but instead is going to be used to buy more corporate stock.

Donnie Trump ain't gonna like this...... More companies will probably follow suit w/ buy backs
More...

Political douche
 
LMAO what an idiot? Apple literally announced in January that they are committing $350B, over 5yrs, to the U.S. economy creating 20,000 jobs. As for, the tax bill, only the naive thought it'd be to create jobs at huge corporations when their duty is to shareholders. Middle class should have known trickle down economics doesn't work. Mr. Trump touted Carrier only for them to outsource, the jobs, anyway. Ford shipped a bunch of jobs to Mexico. With economy on fire and millions of open positions no one cares...recession comes they will.
 
Buying options before earnings is pure gambling in my opinion. Here is the history of AAPL moves in the last 10 cycles:

upload_2018-5-7_8-51-55.png


As you can see, it's 50/50. And even if it moves in your direction, the move is not always enough to make the trade profitable.
 
Kim Klaiman said:
Buying options before earnings is pure gambling in my opinion. Here is the history of AAPL moves in the last 10 cycles:

View attachment 185715

As you can see, it's 50/50. And even if it moves in your direction, the move is not always enough to make the trade profitable.
More...
Kim....Where do you get that nice neat chart? Is that out there online for various stocks or is that something you put together? I like that.
 
nasdaq.com also has earnings history for free Then it’s quite possible to take that information and look at charts and see if the follow through is more than a day or not, often times the follow through lasts more than a day.

50/50 with greater than 2/1 R/R works for me, usually look for 3/1 plus on earnings. Other factors come to the equation like how often does the company beat, what’s the consensus going in. What has this earnings season brought, more positive surprises, how about the surprises within the sector etc. Apple has a tendency to surprise upward, BS earnings and forward outlook were priced in. So the statistics favor Apple while the consensus was against what’s statistically favorable. Then you’d look at the price action and see what’s truly possible. AAPL was towards the bottom of a trading range with plenty of upwards potential to the top of the range. So in my case you’d go in and find a vertical that would have reasonable price targets. Apple top of the range was $180 so I went in and chose 170-175 as this was well within the PA you could expect Apple to move. A spread of 5.00 on a 170 stock represents a mere 3% move required. Although this spread was slightly OTM when I purchased it so needing a 4% move. Why a vertical debit spread because options tend to have a volatility crush. The option I was long would decrease in IV value but so would the one I was short mitigating the issue.

Sure it was still a directional call but then you get into condors and butterflies to avoid the directional bias. Those are expensive and those are when big moves are necessary R/R selling or buying those isn’t really my taste. All said and done and all factors considered I’d say I’m okay with my 50/50 gamble.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top