A Typical Investment Analysis
- Thread starter bubba7
- Start date
America is going through a neat shift in investment strategies from top to bottom.
ET people know that you can make money all the time. America started asking Q's when the financial industry failedto perform.
A stategy based on asset allocation was simply shit canned as it should have been long ago.
Advertising agnecies are influencing the industry now with a wide variety of BS to put in advertizements as we all know.
The game of going from stocks to bonds and vice versa was always traditionally based on investor pain. The financial industry always responded to this pain with another non solution that allowed the account to be kept. Total BS.
In ET we have three groups of people: those in entertainment; those who are superficial readers and those whocome here to study and learn.
Mr Market was an entertainer. I profer stuff to study. What I simply did was a superficial set of notes that taught me how an entertainer was pulling the wool over the entertained and the reader types here.
Mr. Market has an overkill rough selection system that turns the selection into mud. He does the 101 DD trick that is embedded in his Roxburymyth system. He does not know anything about application of capital to make money. He fails to monitor the markets and he fails to analyze the consequences of his presumed "investing". It turns out he could not have put money in all the stocks he entertains with and scondly he had cask sitting around fo0r over a third of the investment period. He best entertainment to me was the bullshit of how many stocks he held at a given time. The way he posts his records equates with selling aluminum siding to poor people living in small houses in the South.
I can see that there is no way to really learn from Mr Market's bullshit here. People here are just wanting entertainment and they sponge all the crap up from any place it originates.
What should have happened here was that people counter the selection overkill with an alternative.
People could have methodically introduced the criteria for due diligence on culled stocks from an efficient selection process.
A series of discussions could have ensued to point out just how wealth is cycled through the compound interest formuls as the exact opposite of running a string of wins. He BS'ed hundreds of poeple with this rabbit he focussed upon.
Since there was a total void on application of capital like rotating money through investment threads to keep money making money, Mr Market continued his entertainment un affected by any intellectual discussion amoung the people who "studied" his bullshit.
Monitoring , analysis, and optimizing are the three keys to building wealth optimally. any one who broached any of this stuff was crapped on by the meat and cheese theme and the weight lifting to return the threads to entertainment only.
I published his capitial gains and thread record to just show how many 15% turns he has to make in his ficticious record to counter the superficial strings of wins crap.
Speaking from personal experience, when you are atraders, you reach a point where you have to lay off excess capital into the equities market. Later you will find that a limited place as well and you will have to deal with it. My point is this: commodities trading and intraday trading at some point in success has to be complimented with longer trem investing. A natural place where you operate at about 1/50 the pace of raking in money incommodities. Both markets have common overlaps and their is a terrific synergy.
A lot can be learned from the topics that come out of MR Markets bullshit and entertainment. The fact that some people get sucked in by a turd like this is a real downer for ET to have as part of it's reputation.
While I find your post to be very diligent and well thought out, i think you are missing some very key elements too.....Yes , he holds some of these for quite some time....but some he held for a week....do you give him the same compounded return an an annual basis? For instance. if you buy 1000 ABC at 9:35 at 10.00 and sell it at 9:50 at 9.00....you lost 100.00...but when figuring your return do you compound that loss over the year?
Since MM has not revealed his share amount, why not just assume each and every trade was done in a marginable account for 100 shares each and every time...then, since you are very concerned about the capital issue, assume he has an extra 10k in cash = 20k in buying power.....I think his overall return will be profitable by about 8-10 % since inception...and this does not include any dividends that may or may not be payable on the positions held longer then three months.
Your analysis is very similar to the mutual fund performance analysis that was based on the vaunted " 10 year return"...i remember back in the 90's a lot of funds could;t wait for 1998/99 so they could get the crash of 87' off the books for the 10 year return and the asian contagion fiasco of 96 off the three year return.
Since MM has not revealed his share amount, why not just assume each and every trade was done in a marginable account for 100 shares each and every time...then, since you are very concerned about the capital issue, assume he has an extra 10k in cash = 20k in buying power.....I think his overall return will be profitable by about 8-10 % since inception...and this does not include any dividends that may or may not be payable on the positions held longer then three months.
Your analysis is very similar to the mutual fund performance analysis that was based on the vaunted " 10 year return"...i remember back in the 90's a lot of funds could;t wait for 1998/99 so they could get the crash of 87' off the books for the 10 year return and the asian contagion fiasco of 96 off the three year return.
See thread A. Make the assumption that everyone else here would. he is plouhing with the capital. Ploughing means he is reapplying every penny.
Okay you get that straight. Now you have a basis for looking at the other threads for a similar performance. I wanted to start slowly on this stuff of MR Market and maybe bring a few people along a little ways.
as you get into applying anystandards of preformance to Mr market you see each and every standard you apply that he is crap.
i am glad you are opening the door to doing some study here instead of the surface type crap that pervades ET. It would help out if five people each posted there take on the homer page stuff Mr Market does. If someone postyed his trades in an orderly way as a starter maybe others could more easily see what I am talking about.
mr Market is going to have to clean up a ton of BS before he come back on here. i think someone is going to go to his other BS sites and let him know whats up fior him from here on in.
Your sitting in the wrong seats. you might want to go to a few places here where a lot of neat stuff is going on. this thread is a simple one thatjust gets Mr Market track record in order.
i spent a 1/2 hour and took 3/4 of a page of notes to be able to annotate Mr Market's trading record. everyone who is investing does this all the time for forums they participate in when the guy is posting Bullshit on a web page.
Your limelight comment is a B person comment.
Many of us posted that he was full of shit without having to endure the work that you have done. While it's certainly interesting that you have taken the time to prove he's full of shit, I believe most of us should have come to that conclusion simply from the nature of his posts.
While it's certainly possible that a Soros clone may spend significant time posting strategy here at ET, I would venture the odds near nil. There are a couple of guys here who have achieved Soros like returns for many years, even besting the man himself - but you would not know this by reading their posts.
You know, that was something I was waiting on to see if mm would ever touch on, beyond mentioning price targets. My thinking was that if the selection was based on FA, ordinarily you're seeking much bigger gains long term. In other words, that FA could only give mm a selection viable for just one week's (or a few weeks') worth of holding, wouldn't seem to construe much of an analysis at all.
What was there to this FA? Turns out it simply boiled down to the criteria being finding those stocks that have seen great relative strength performance, and riding the position for a hoped for few more points. That's why we had seen mm posts describing 'why he liked' XYZ with criteria such as, 'has gained 150% in the last 12 months'. Think about that. Where's the FA 13 months ago that would have pointed to XYZ back then in order to capitalize on that 150% movement?
And 'hoping' is perhaps why mm holds losing positions. Obviously, his "screens", which scan for performance and strength, have long ago omitted positions whose performance has now been now down 29% and losing for some time. But he doesn't get rid of those positions. What does that sound like but the typical investor's hope that an issue will turn around? When asked about this, mm claimed that losing positions from his methodology indeed had a history of turning around and even gaining on top of the recoup. All questions of 'capital opportunities lost' aside, which were avoided by mm, the unspoken question that lingered was, how do mm screens, that make selections based on strength and performance as of a year+ ago, translate to now current meaningful FA of losing positions, when they're not even on the screens anymore?
You would think that someone with an advanced degree from Wharton, as a contributor to this forum, would have offered up insight, nuances, stats and methods that correlate with that degree... but after many questions and so-called answers, nothing more than a Motley Fool poster type mindset was given. What a shame.