A Typical Investment Analysis

B

bubba7

People who own stocks for a short term (say 4 to 6 weeks) usually run streams of money to do this. I looked at a typical guy who posts his record in a limited way. The results are shown below.

Mr. Market’s Money streams.

I label them alphabetically and then I list the sequence of stocks owned in the stream and also when the stream is in cash.

2002
Stream A: DHOM, SAH, RYL, JOSB, cash (Starting JUN to end of 2002.)

Stream B: GNWR, GAN, TENT, HAMP, cash (Starting JUL going to end of 2002.

Stream C: ANH, cash ( Starting APR goingto end of 20002)

Stream D: MHK, OHB (held OHB into JUN 2003)

Four streams were determined by looking a where he held stock simultaneously.. The stocks were: SAH, GNWR, NHK and ANH.

He is in cash a lot. By the month for 2002 it is as follows: JAN 75% to 25% cash; FEB 25% to 0%; MAR 0%; APR 0% to 25%; MAY 25%; JUN 75% to 50%; JUL 50% to 25%; rest of year 75% cash.


You will be more surprised by 2003. Now that the first six months are over we can see he needed 9 strems of capital to do his side by side holding of stocks. Ordinarily One branches into more streams as capital accumulates. With the returns he is having the only alternative he used was to put new money in the streams since there was none there in cash. I will post the first six months of 2003 next.

Finally I will post the current 12 stream situation that Mr. Money is running. Again to get to 12 streams from 9 streams it takes new money since it is not available from his sells.

This is getting to be fun.

Use Mr Market’s home page where he still has this data posted as of now (.08JUL03 ).

You will noticethe completed trades are not arranged in any particular order. I just made a chart of the times each stock was held and spliced them together to get the minimum possible streams. What I see first is that money is being added (2003) to the account to buy stocks often. There is no available cash usually starting in 2003. About half of 2002 was wasted from an investment point of view by being in cash.
 
Interesting, but you are assuming he needs new capital, ye in reality if e is trading 50-100 share lots like i suspect, he will not tie up much capital at all.....unless of course he uses margin
 
2003 JAN to JUN

stream A: cash, RATE, LCI, PORT, FBC, cash

stream B: cash, ODFL, DRL, cash

stream C: OHB, cash

stream D: Avid, cash, NFI, cash

New 2003 streams.

Stream E: JFBC, cash

Stream F: QSII, cash

Stream G VNBC, cash

Stream H: MBT, Cash

I did not splice in his present holdings. This is just the first 6 months. It is possible that the present holdings caused a bulge in this posting of streams. I will get that staight next.

AVID is a little messy going from 2002 to 2003. you do not see it in the first post and it means that there is less cash in 2002. LOL.


Waht we can see now is that for 2002 he had to turn at least 4 strreams in parallel to get a 15% kick in his ROI. You can see that during 20002 he did very few turns of his capital. the last half of 2002 he did not turn anything at all. 6 months of stagnent investing.

to foist off his charts on all thehits that were made on his web site is something else.

He has taken all kinds of trouble to bury his performance (lack of performance)
 
Present holdings 15APR03 to present

We need 13 streams of capital to carry these holdings. One is in cash now since it has not been refilled when MBT was sold.

The list at present is:

Stream A: FBC, UTSI holding
Stream B: COH holding
Stream C: WSB holding
Stream D: FCFS holding
Stream E: AXL holding
Stream F: CHKE holding
Stream G: MDC holding
Stream H: cash

New streams to handle the bulge.

Stream I: PTST holding
Stream J: ACMR holding
Stream K: FRED holding
Stream L GRMN holding
Stream M: WRLD holding

Thus where we sit to add 15% to Mr Market’s ROI is that he has to turn 12 streams each of which has to pull down 15%. At present he is holding 8 that are advancing and 4 that are declining for a net of 4 advancing stocks currently. As far as a turn every 4 to 6 weeks, that always has been history.

Thereare many ways to report what is what. There are many ways to play games. What you get in this thread is how Mr. Market does the Wharton thing based on whatever.

Mr Market has one additional account thatwe know of. It is his Vegas fottball account which he keeps adding money too also.

This little clarification is the kind of thing that we all need to do when Due dilligence is requested by Mr Market.

60, 000 poelpe hit one of his sites and another 100,000 hit his homeroom. The 700 members he has have been taken for a royal ride.

If you assume that every stream is equally funded; this trip is hardly beating inflation.

my personal conclusion is that Mr Market has not posted all the results he has gotten. I base this simply upon the fact that his streams of money are nopt sensible nor rational. He is pullingmoney out of the air to post what he does or he is not posting his losseswhen he has them. Take your choice.
 
Quote from TM_Direct:

Interesting, but you are assuming he needs new capital, ye in reality if e is trading 50-100 share lots like i suspect, he will not tie up much capital at all.....unless of course he uses margin
More...

Play it anyway you want. Capital used simultaneously is where you see the capital maximum requirements. If you minimze the number of streams that are needed to handle the concurrent trades, this guy is bullshitting everyone blind.

This is one sick puppy who is playing games. He is going to really go beserk when he gets the picture he has really painted on that web page.

This was the first time I went there. Once I saw how he buried all that crap, I just beelied up to the bar and set it all straight.

Man I had to jot down at least 3/4 of a page of notes to "fix" this bullshit on his home page.

Bye BYE mr. Market and his crap.
 
Quote from bubba7:



Play it anyway you want. Capital used simultaneously is where you see the capital maximum requirements. If you minimze the number of streams that are needed to handle the concurrent trades, this guy is bullshitting everyone blind.
More...
Whether mm has shares riding on the success of his picks is really a non-issue for me. Your excellent analysis presumes that real money is involved.

If real money were not involved, how would it change the interpretation of the results of your analysis?

Thanks.
 
Quote from inandlong:


Whether mm has shares riding on the success of his picks is really a non-issue for me. Your excellent analysis presumes that real money is involved.

If real money were not involved, how would it change the interpretation of the results of your analysis?

Thanks.
More...


Let's look at his picking as the essential feature. I posted about 6 specific itmes regarding the picking and then using picks to make money. Reposting that is not too important cause it is available.

I think the moneystream analysis is just a simple statement of the record he created. The picks certainly do not make much money individually because of the timing of the pick. there is no strategy that he deployed to extract money from the stocks.

Timing is more important in compounding than profits and in particular a specific targt profit.

Were he to focus on timing much more moneycan be made.
If he were to focus on doing price trends instead of targets, then the money velocity would have increased considerably.

If he were to list the investments in a manner that a person could track the application of capital it could have, early on , revealed that there is not a strategy.

In actual fact his long DD's are not very adequate beacuse they stand alone rather than relate to other potentials that are there.

His myths are neatly revealed in his choices and they are all Roxbury delimited. At some point everyone has to "grow" into an adult individual. they say that if you ask a person to drawapicture, you can see where that person's artisitc age is set. This guy did not make it very far in life before his financial age was set.

This stuff for him is an escape from whatever. He is operating at a hobby non financial level Only one in a hundred find some reason to continue to relate to him.

There's no alternative interpretation to a simple money stream analysis. This streams don't show a continuous investment strategy and there is no consistency for the trades done at all. Money management can't be addressed bcause he just pulls money out of the air as he continues.

Right now he has twice his inital capital hung up in loosers and just a 2:1 win ratio presently. His strategy takes the ratio lower and lower over time as we see. This is not a winning long term strategy as it is being played out.

What it looksw like is a thin layer of fungus growing on a piece of bread. by adding more capital than profits and having a continually deterioration of the profit ratio held stocks, he has bought the farm so to speak.
 
Quote from bubba7:


... .

He is in cash a lot. By the month for 2002 it is as follows: JAN 75% to 25% cash; FEB 25% to 0%; MAR 0%; APR 0% to 25%; MAY 25%; JUN 75% to 50%; JUL 50% to 25%; rest of year 75% cash.

... .
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Wow, what a devastating criticism. He was in cash a lot during one of the worst years in market history.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:



Wow, what a devastating criticism. He was in cash a lot during one of the worst years in market history.
More...

Nobody does the cash thing anytime anywhere anymore.
 
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