A serious discussion on EUR/AUD

Quote from short&naked:

So you watch the news reports as a sentiment indicator for your scalping setups? huh? :confused:
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Off topic but yes of course, what central banks and institutional market movers are saying and thinking is vitally important to forming an overall view (bias) of direction, especially at times like these when technicals are proving so ineffective.
 
Quote from cabletrader:

Off topic but yes of course, what central banks and institutional market movers are saying and thinking is vitally important to forming an overall view (bias) of direction, especially at times like these when technicals are proving so ineffective.
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I thought that scalpers live in the 1M time frames... what does sentiments have to do at that level?
 
Quote from short&naked:

I thought that scalpers live in the 1M time frames... what does sentiments have to do at that level?
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It depends on your definition of scalping, nowadays it seems to mean short-term trading rather than the traditional meaning.

I trade off a 15m chart and average (scale) into trades when conditions are like this, and for that I need to take a view. I can only form a view by listening to every scrap of relevant fundamental information.

I think adapting is key, in 'normal' market conditions I trade only technicals but when they cease being as effective I find alternative methods rather than standing aside watching money float by.

You obviously disagree with my approach but you'll agree it's hard to argue with results, bottom line is what counts in this business.
 
See, I trade the 15 min charts but I would consider my trading more "position trading."

I made a quick 39 ticks on the euro tonight and Im done :D , but generally I will be in 1 - 4 trades a night, probably avg 2.

Its intraday but I dont consider it scalping.

I dont know, it is what it is I guess.
 
Quote from cabletrader:

It depends on your definition of scalping, nowadays it seems to mean short-term trading rather than the traditional meaning.

I trade off a 15m chart and average (scale) into trades when conditions are like this, and for that I need to take a view. I can only form a view by listening to every scrap of relevant fundamental information.

I think adapting is key, in 'normal' market conditions I trade only technicals but when they cease being as effective I find alternative methods rather than standing aside watching money float by.

You obviously disagree with my approach but you'll agree it's hard to argue with results, bottom line is what counts in this business.
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I only disagree with your def. of scalping. :D
 
Quote from short&naked:

RSI means little in normal times and even less now!

This isn't the stock market. This is forex, the relative valuation of currencies. Also, it has no direction! When it comes to E/A its gets worse: You are dealing with the relative strength of two relatively valued currencies (EUR/USD and AUD/USD).

Take a look at my multi-decade chart from before and tell me that this monster is predictable.

Yes, it could correct down a bit, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. Much too crazy.
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OK, here are my calculi I just made:
HIGH 1.9104

LOW 1.5475

HIGH - LOW = 0.3629

Percentage meeting price: 0.3629*0.84=0.3048

1.8298 BOP

1.8298+0.3048 = 2.1346

There we are. It almost reached the TP at 2.1149.
The end of the month is still away but there we go. The tp is 2.1346, let's round it to 2.14 because AT is not the Bible.

With these little "tricks" I predicted the EUR/USD was going to reach 1.35 when it was at 1.45 - 1.46, but I quit the trade at 1.38 because I was shy it was going to bounce back at that lvl. :\
So I'm gonna be more self confident this time.
 

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This discussion shows why there is a market - there are so many different ways to trade.

I have bloomberg, reuters, market news and another news terminal as well as a squawk and cnbc on permanently.

I could not trade any other way.

I haven't had an overnight position or traded on pure technicals for at least 6 months.
 
Quote from short&naked:

That is a 27 year chart, you realize that, right?

So, 1) when you zoom in the setups are less than obvious 2) you have to wait years for a particular setup. In fact, technically, triangles that form that long aren't really triangles, that was more like a breakout from resistance.

I've been trading this beast for years and can tell you that looks deceive, BIG TIME!
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We trade what we see with the techniques we know so of course opinions must differ. I see a triangle lol and I took this down to the 1 Hr and it was technicaly perfect and easy to trade.

I'd expect that I could take it down to the 1 min and trade there too because I honestly can't see any problems. Trendlines, MA's and candles all behaved as any other chart. Granted it was a big move, but from yearly to daily to hourly it's just another chart with solid PA.

I'm still confused about the problem
 
Quote from yoohoo:

We trade what we see with the techniques we know so of course opinions must differ. I see a triangle lol and I took this down to the 1 Hr and it was technicaly perfect and easy to trade.

I'd expect that I could take it down to the 1 min and trade there too because I honestly can't see any problems. Trendlines, MA's and candles all behaved as any other chart. Granted it was a big move, but from yearly to daily to hourly it's just another chart with solid PA.

I'm still confused about the problem
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Problem is that triangles don't exist on such a long time frame.
 
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