There is a good chance this thing won't come back down for a long time.
A serious discussion on EUR/AUD
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
The thing is that it did this huge uptrend with just 2 - 3 candles that are like a pole, when this happens on stocks usually at least there's a retracement and this could be confirmed by the lack of space on all the oscillators.
However it's true as well that we could have some weeks in an overbought area but that can't last for long.
The RSI is at 90 on weekly time frame, where do you want it to go? 200?
I'm not saying the uptrend won't go on but it has to retrace, take some breath, hence jump on SMA 20 and next bounce back if it has to.
This movement happened also because a lot of aussies are selling AUD in favor of gold.
When the S&P 500 will bounce back, I hope it will, my target on it is 960 which has hold so far, all the other stock exchanges will bounce back too.
Everything I learnt is that in tough times like this, nothing else matters than your own experience, instinct.
You can also be wrong, but it's better being wrong with your own mind than with someone else's one.
We lived the same atmosphere of fear, uncertainty, ecc.
The trick is the following: switch off tv, don't turn on the radio and trash the FT or Business week.
They just spread a lot of news which create noise, a overhead of information which is not what we need.
That's just imho.
Quote from short&naked:
Exotics are hard to trade, since you must essentially analyse two different pairs. You are measuring the relative strength of AUD and EUR vs the USD. Very tricky.
Look at the following very long term chart and I think you'll be less confident in being able to determine what the next move will be.
Just took a quick look at this. Looks very technical to me with lots of basic set ups available. The break out of the triangle is to be anticipated, expected and going long on the baseline is a simple low risk trade with a great R/R.
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Quote from Deviad:
The thing is that it did this huge uptrend with just 2 - 3 candles that are like a pole, when this happens on stocks usually at least there's a retracement and this could be confirmed by the lack of space on all the oscillators.
However it's true as well that we could have some weeks in an overbought area but that can't last for long.
The RSI is at 90 on weekly time frame, where do you want it to go? 200?
I'm not saying the uptrend won't go on but it has to retrace, take some breath, hence jump on SMA 20 and next bounce back if it has to.
RSI means little in normal times and even less now!
This isn't the stock market. This is forex, the relative valuation of currencies. Also, it has no direction! When it comes to E/A its gets worse: You are dealing with the relative strength of two relatively valued currencies (EUR/USD and AUD/USD).
Take a look at my multi-decade chart from before and tell me that this monster is predictable.
Yes, it could correct down a bit, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. Much too crazy.
That is a 27 year chart, you realize that, right?
So, 1) when you zoom in the setups are less than obvious 2) you have to wait years for a particular setup. In fact, technically, triangles that form that long aren't really triangles, that was more like a breakout from resistance.
I've been trading this beast for years and can tell you that looks deceive, BIG TIME!
Very true, but that does not mean that this market is good to trade in. In fact, I think it is terrible. You won't make lot's of money, since you absolutely have to keep leverage low.
That said, I think that some of the fear is justified. People have lost their deposits in banks. That's just a fact.
I couldn't disagree more. At times like these I want to know as much as possible about what the market, central banks, and institutional market movers are thinking, how else can I have a bias when technical set-ups are proving so unreliable?
I think market conditions like these are great, as a scalper I thrive on this type of volatility. Granted leverage needs to be kept reasonable but we're seeing some quite excessive moves which compensates, comparable profits are still there for the taking.
So you watch the news reports as a sentiment indicator for your scalping setups? huh?
