A Retail's Day Trading Experiment

traider said:
How do you id a significant trend? What instruments trend the most?
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I day trade tsla. It has a few big runs (up or down) every day. Tsla is a trendy stock I would say. Since I am a discretionary trader I determine the trend by looking at the chart patterns.

Of course, I am wrong about 50% of the time. The key is cut losers quick when wrong and ride a big winner when right.
 
Interim results after 6 weeks of live trades with small size:

Calendar days: 6 weeks
Total # of trading days: 31
Winning trading days: 24
Total # of trades: 396
Winning trades: 212
Ave # trades/day: 13
Lowest # trades/day: 3
Highest # trades/day: 37
Ave Profit/day: 0.50%

$1K trade capital:
Ave profit/day $5.
A free Big Mac a day.

The one big negative: Emotionally it was very taxing. Everyday, after I stopped I was emotionally spent. I am not sure I can do this day after day. :(

Swing trading options is a lot easier on my psyche.
 
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ironchef said:
A free Big Mac a day.
The one big negative: Emotionally it was very taxing. Everyday, after I stopped I was emotionally spent.
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A daily dose of stress and a Big Mac --- Not recommended for longevity :D I have been wondering how you were doing. Thanks for the report -- at least you proved you can make some coin. conquer the emotions and maybe make some big coin.
 
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Illini Trader said:
A daily dose of stress and a Big Mac --- Not recommended for longevity :D I have been wondering how you were doing. Thanks for the report -- at least you proved you can make some coin. conquer the emotions and maybe make some big coin.
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Thanks. Those were the most delicious Big Mac I ever had.

It is hard work, no easy street.
 
I think the only way for trading longevity is to find an edge that you only need to trade a few times a day - a few real trades not counting all other trades that are scratched, hopefully no big losers with proper risk management.
 
Jzwu2017 said:
I think the only way for trading longevity is to find an edge that you only need to trade a few times a day - a few real trades not counting all other trades that are scratched, hopefully no big losers with proper risk management.
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So true sir.

And let me say it again, what is bothering me regarding day trading in general and trend following in particular is the math and the logics are fuzzy, sometimes it felt like voodoo.

For someone coming from the option trading side of the trading world which is generally math, data and fundamental driven, it is not very satisfying and therefore the anxiety. Like playing the slot machine in Vegas.
 
Averaging a half a percent a day is pretty darn good over 34 days. So are you going to try to work through the anxiety you have about it or go back to your tried and true options trading?
 
Illini Trader said:
Averaging a half a percent a day is pretty darn good over 34 days. So are you going to try to work through the anxiety you have about it or go back to your tried and true options trading?
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Don't have the answer. Only time will tell.

Another profitable day today. I am happy I have overcome my past failures in day trading.

I kept very detail records, so I reviewed my 3 months Sim and carefully compared to 6 weeks of live trades. The only real difference is average daily profit. Sim is about double live, but Sim win rate is below 50% whereas live is now above 50%.

Here is the reason: Because of my own risk tolerance, I intentionally took profit early in live in order to reduce the anxiety of seeing a winner became a loser. So, win rate went up, profit went down. Max losses per day also went down. Similar to the risk adjusted return concept.

Don't let anyone tell you otherwise: Sim and live results should be very close.

To my fellow amateur retail day traders: It is possible to be profitable. But you have to work really hard, no short cuts.
 
Here are the statistics for this day trading experiment, as of today:

Live, ~ $1K per trade, 10 weeks, profitable every week, typically 1 losing day per week.

Total # of days = 46
Winning days = 35
Total # of trades = 620
Winning trades = 348
Ave # trades/day = 13
lowest # trades/day = 3
highest # trades/day = 37
Ave Profit/day % = 0.39%
Average Profit/day = $3.90

After a couple of simple statistical analysis, I have some confidence the positive expectancy can persist.

I have also decided not to scale up, happy just to get a free Big Mac or a free taco every day. Too much pressure if I scale up, don't need that.

Thank you for your support, especially @schizo, @tiddlywinks, @Laissez Faire, @rb7, @SunTrader, @deaddog, @SimpleMeLike, @Illini Trader .... and many others who helped me out.

After a decade trading directional, single leg, long options, it is time I learn how to trade like @destriero and @taowave so I am going to move on to study butterflies.

Merry Christmas and a profitable new year to all.
 
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