The law of large numbers?
The Central Limit Theorem?
Central Limit Theorem is for n > 30
The Central Limit Theorem?
Central Limit Theorem is for n > 30
a problem about probability
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Both lotto picks are equally likely to win, but one of you may have a higher expected payout based on the number of people you have to share the prize with.
I remember some research on people's tendency to prefer certain numbers over others in picking lotto numbers. The upshot is that if you chose the same numbers as everyone else and you chose a winner, then you have to share the jackpot. If you chose unusual numbers and you chose a winner, then you have the jackpot all to yourself. Since all the patterns are equally likely, you want to chose a pattern than others won't chose.
But, personally, I think that the lottery is a Stupidity Tax and I refuse to pay it. It is interesting to think about, however.
Cheers,
Traden4Alpha
Stupidity taxes are great. We should have more of them
and then lower our state taxes
It's really more of a "hope" tax though.
Funny how the Dems dont seem to have a problem
with a system that targets the poor like this...heh
peace
axeman
and then lower our state taxes
It's really more of a "hope" tax though.
Funny how the Dems dont seem to have a problem
with a system that targets the poor like this...heh
peace
axeman
Quote from Traden4Alpha:
But, personally, I think that the lottery is a Stupidity Tax and I refuse to pay it. It is interesting to think about, however.
Cheers,
Traden4Alpha [/B]
Yep, the lottery is an indirect tax on the poor.
I took math in 6th grade....
The probability of the quarter being flipped is completely separate of the probability of how many times in a row. So to compare the two only creates a complicated formula. In essence you are looking at a vertical probability and then a horizontal probability.
Even though they are based upon the flipping of the coin, odds are based upon extremes and equilibrium. Does that make sense? I should have went to 7th grade....
The probability of the quarter being flipped is completely separate of the probability of how many times in a row. So to compare the two only creates a complicated formula. In essence you are looking at a vertical probability and then a horizontal probability.
Even though they are based upon the flipping of the coin, odds are based upon extremes and equilibrium. Does that make sense? I should have went to 7th grade....
You don't make money betting on heads or tails. You make money betting on how people will bet after 5 heads in a row have been tossed.
Exactly, I remember a particularly large lotto jackpot several years ago here in Virginia, that had a payout of ~$25 million. The newspaper reported that the most common set of numbers chosen, was the ticket: 7, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42 (multiples of 'lucky' number 7). Assuming that set of numbers DID come up, each of the winning tickets would have gotten only about $800 apiece, due to their large number of winners to split the jackpot!
The only 'skill' in lotteries, IMO, is to:
1) Only play when the jackpot is very large, if you play at all; and
2) Try to pick numbers that will have the least likelihood of matching the same set of numbers as someone else. This would suggest to me avoiding single digit numbers (1-9) and numbers of 31 or below (birthdates, etc).
In any case, rest assured that the odds are still steep against you, but this will at least make them 'less bad', I think.
-Eric
Eric,
That (the non-lucky number and non-birthday strategy) does not necessarily affect the odds of winning, only the odds of having to share a jackpot, wouldn't you think? Of course, that assumes that most others are not using game theory to figure out how to maximize payoffs given their ticket is chosen as the winning number. For me, the easiest way to win that game, is not to play.
That (the non-lucky number and non-birthday strategy) does not necessarily affect the odds of winning, only the odds of having to share a jackpot, wouldn't you think? Of course, that assumes that most others are not using game theory to figure out how to maximize payoffs given their ticket is chosen as the winning number. For me, the easiest way to win that game, is not to play.
A guy bets me $1.00 he can toss 4 heads out of 5.
I take the bet and win $1.00
He says he wants to try again for $5.00
I take the bet and am now up $6.00
He comes back later and says he has been practicing and he now has his technique perfected. How bout $10?
I am now up $16.00
He shakes his head and says he doesn't know what is wrong, will I let him try one more time for $20?
He finally tosses 3 heads a tails and a heads.
I am down $4.00
I say let's try again
He says, "No, I better not. I'm not tossing very well today."
I take the bet and win $1.00
He says he wants to try again for $5.00
I take the bet and am now up $6.00
He comes back later and says he has been practicing and he now has his technique perfected. How bout $10?
I am now up $16.00
He shakes his head and says he doesn't know what is wrong, will I let him try one more time for $20?
He finally tosses 3 heads a tails and a heads.
I am down $4.00
I say let's try again
He says, "No, I better not. I'm not tossing very well today."
Well, he would eventually win this game anyway, providing...
1. He has an unlimited bankroll.
2. You set no ceiling on the amount of the bet.
3. He can/will pay up if he loses, and vice versa.
Of course, your maximum loss is limited to $4 (I calculate) as long as he keeps doubling his bet, and losing, until his inevitable win.