A message to some day traders.

[tommcginnis]

the argument that the long-term is more predictable than the short term is what is rubbish. The entire premise of the argument is invalid and TOSH.

 

[Stamamarti]

My mother used to ‘read the tea leaves’ -she used the ‘patterns and forms’ she saw to ‘predict’ what future might bring — I bet her success rate was exactly that of TA

https://www.allure.com/story/how-to-read-tea-leaves-tasseography

 

[themickey]

Volpri, you are so one eyed how intraday is such a superior way to trade and how agile one can be.
But overlook the fact that fees, slippage, churn, energy, time employed managing the trades are eating you alive.
Where I will concede intraday is possibly superior is in a highly automated situation on a professional level run by a team of; coders, traders, IT/computer technicians, supervisors etc.
I doubt the guys who frequent the ES Journal have any form of professionalism other than talking big. I have most if them blocked due to the utter nonsense they constantly crap on about.

 

[themickey]

When you make the right argument I will agree. So far you haven’t that I can see. Maybe I missed it? I am getting old you know.

I will repeat: Price movement is NEVER random and there is no such thing as noise. They can appear to be but that is deceptive. False concepts they be. Have been, are, and will be. But all guru’s ...well most all...promote push the concepts as it justifies low win rate and losing trades...even black buzzard events can be capitalized upon and $$$ made by nimble discretionary traders. It is the investors who will lose their ass when the black buzzard flies in because they don’t know “what” to do. So, you do have that right the investors should probably hedge for such events that may or may not happen in 500 years. It is the buy and hold or sell and hold investor who assumes the risks of the black buzzard and who can be hurt drastically by the buzzard. Not the smart..nimble..turn on a dime...discretionary day trader. When the buzzard craps....a good trader will know what to do.....while the investor can’t get the broker to even answer his phone...

I'll bust a myth for you, when the market decides to fall off a cliff which happens once in a while every several years, it is not a black swan, intraday guys because they are surrounded by trees may not see it coming, but there is plenty ample warning signs.
I've seen so many 'bear calls' from intraday traders, they appear to be the most clueless.

 

[Mysteron]

I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.

Human nature doesn't change, which is the reason why history tends to repeat itself. Therefore look to the past to determine how the future might evolve, and bet on the likely outcome. Don't bet too much though, in order to stay in the game.

 

[Overnight]

I'll bust a myth for you, when the market decides to fall off a cliff which happens once in a while every several years, it is not a black swan...

Four, yes FOUR, drops of at least 10% since Jan 2018 in the NQ. In less than 2 years. =>10% drops after a tweet (black swan) are not considered falling off a cliff? If not, what is considered falling off a cliff that happens once in a while every several years? You talking the several year intervals before 2009?

 

[Amahrix]

Four, yes FOUR, drops of at least 10% since Jan 2018 in the NQ. In less than 2 years. =>10% drops after a tweet (black swan) are not considered falling off a cliff? If not, what is considered falling off a cliff that happens once in a while every several years? You talking the several year intervals before 2009?

Too many are so fixated on black swan, forget black swan, majority of these type of traders have negative statistical edge overall anyways. Black swan need not emerge, that should be the least of their concerns.

 

[Amahrix]

When you make the right argument I will agree. So far you haven’t that I can see. Maybe I missed it? I am getting old you know.

I will repeat: Price movement is NEVER random and there is no such thing as noise. They can appear to be but that is deceptive. False concepts they be. Have been, are, and will be. But all guru’s ...well most all...promote push the concepts as it justifies low win rate and losing trades...even black buzzard events can be capitalized upon and $$$ made by nimble discretionary traders. It is the investors who will lose their ass when the black buzzard flies in because they don’t know “what” to do. So, you do have that right the investors should probably hedge for such events that may or may not happen in 500 years. It is the buy and hold or sell and hold investor who assumes the risks of the black buzzard and who can be hurt drastically by the buzzard. Not the smart..nimble..turn on a dime...discretionary day trader. When the buzzard craps....a good trader will know what to do.....while the investor can’t get the broker to even answer his phone...

Thanks for your comment. I responded with a 2nd post but forgot to tag you, if you can refer to that and let me know your thoughts.

Edit: I understand what you’re saying that “price movement is never random”. This is correct, in the literal sense. What I’m saying is more abstract, it’s about predicting the next state of the system. It’s about predicting the movement itself and it’s direction etc. anyways refer to my post on last page or whatever and you’ll see my expanded thought.

 

[Overnight]

Too many are so fixated on black swan, forget black swan, majority of these type of traders have negative statistical edge overall anyways. Black swan need not emerge, that should be the least of their concerns.

Far as I am concerned, the black swan is the Trump™. The manufacturing numbers from Tuesday? Par for the course. And the market recovered because of...Chopper talk! He talked it up again, far as I can tell. His trade talk was the black swan that caused the market to shoot back up (along with the new lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, yeah)

 

[SunTrader]

The market is sometimes rational and then there are the times it reacts to Trumptwitterer.