A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

show me one trader who has agreed with you

@ElectricSavant

“Amahrix,

You have all the ingredients and revelations of a great all time trader. If you wrote a book I would buy it.

I have been a trader for many years...more years than I would like to admit. I find your posts to hit home. I may be at a turning point in my journey...but results are the only reality.

We shall see...

ES”

 

[padutrader]

You have all the ingredients and revelations of a great all time trader.

you just said it is impossible to make money in short term trading

how are you a great trader

 

[padutrader]

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

how are you a great trader if this is what you said

 

[padutrader]

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random

why should i assume they are random.
they are not.

 

[Amahrix]

Since Amahrix seems to hold some respect for Ray Dalio:

Ray Dalio had horrible trading results in his earlier years. His performance improved greatly when began looking for repetitive patterns in the market. This is T.A. 101 & Dalio is sure a fan of it.

“What I believe is everything happens over and over again through history. ” Ray Dalio

“I think the biggest mistake you can make is to ignore the repetitive nature of the cyclical pattern. Life becomes very easy when you have studied the past to the extent that you have seen the recurring patterns and you can recognize them when they come up again. So I think that’s extremely important." Ray Dalio

Over the last year, I have been studying economic and market moves in major countries going back to about the year 1500, which has given me a superficial understanding of them. With that perspective, I can say with confidence that throughout the times I have studied the same big things happen over and over again for essentially the same reasons. I’m not saying they’re exactly the same or that important changes haven’t occurred, because they certainly have (e.g., how central banks have come and gone and changed). What I am saying is that big paradigm shifts have always happened and they happened for roughly the same reasons.” Ray Dalio

That’s why Ray Dalio has a All Weather Fund which started as his personal fund that Bridgewater took over that basically epitomizes my “I know that I don’t know” proposition. The philosophy is like this... make a strategy that can endure all weathers... ; they don’t know what type of weather they’ll be dealing with.... so create something that can withstand them all.

Ironic.

You’re committing tautological error in this post and misrepresenting my arguments.

 

[Amahrix]

you just said it is impossible to make money in short term tradin

No I didn’t. I never said “it is impossible to make money in short term trading”.

You’re committing Straw Man Fallacy again.

 

[padutrader]

misrepresenting my arguments.

you have no arguments

 

[Amahrix]

how are you a great trader if this is what you said

A trading strategy that solely is based on inductive reasoning.... yes, you’re fooling yourself. This doesn’t translate to “never use inductive reasoning”. Don’t strawman.

 

[Amahrix]

you have no arguments

False statement. I posited many with empirical evidence to support them. Thank you very much.

 

[padutrader]

I never said “it is impossible to make money in short term trading”.

then what is this:you are misunderstanding your own arguments

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!