A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
You are correct about me. I attributed my profits (of full time trading) since 2010 to luck: I am lucky I bet with this raging bull market instead of against it.
It does and it doesn't.
My office is feng shui'd and my computer mouse is red.
luck is an imprecise term; variance (a poker term) or variability is much more accurate, an yes a . that's always part of the game; how a trader manages variance is skill.
luck/variance: after i bought, it went up
skill: as in i sold near the top of that winning TVIX trade using tape reading skill
i get your point, worth discussing
luck/variance: after i bought, it went up
skill: as in i sold near the top of that winning TVIX trade using tape reading skill
i get your point, worth discussing
1. If the strategy of my portfolio has a statistically negative expected value, on your path to (guaranteed) ruin(via law of large numbers), are the earnings you experience on your way there a result of luck or skill?
2. If the strategy entails risk of ruin, are my earnings a result of luck or skill?
3. If someone continues to buy lottery tickets (with its negative EV to the purchaser) and he wins, was he lucky?
4. If I look down to collect a nickel in front of a steamroller and get away, did luck play a role in my survival?
Think a little more abstract for a second.
Right. End of the day, if the strategy of your portfolio has a negative expected value, or risks ruin, the variance that goes in your favor, is a result of luck; not skill.
If a strategy has a positive expected value and hedges risk of ruin, you've removed bad luck wiping you out and left room for good luck to assist you in where you're going.
You've chopped the left tail off. & that takes skill. Nevertheless, luck still plays a role.
No no no...I hate that analogy on "luck or skill with the steamroller" thing. Oi it is just terrible.
You got away because of basic common-sense. And physics or something.
Those who can't do, can't do for a reason. An epistemological reason: They often know the wrong things.
So, those who know the wrong things, teach the wrong things because pedagogy.
It's also not that every teacher knows nothing but those who can't might go into teaching. (lol)
(Passerbyers: This does not mean no one can teach, but make sure they're practitioners, not academics, and make sure they're not bullshitters).
I, for one, am not a bullsh!tter. I tell it how it is. If your strategy entails risk of ruin, or has a negative EV and you experience gains, it's safe to say, you're lucky.
Edit: lol, funny video btw.