A message to some day traders.

[SimpleMeLike]

I am the first to be a proponent of keeping things simple, but your view of trading is too over simplistic. Here is your answer, it was 99.99% luck.


I can clarify further upon request.

Amahrix,

My username has simple in it for a reason.

The trade was not luck man. Now stop goofing around man and playing monkey ass around.

There is trade right there carefully planned and executed.

So what if the trade was luck or fooled by random noise? Who cares, just the make the money man and moved on with it

 

[LS1Z28]

I want to expand on a point I made earlier in regards to the turkey scenario. Imagine you were able to bet daily with even odds whether or not a turkey was going to be butchered. You bet daily that it won't be butchered because that's the most likely outcome. You start with $100, and you bet 2% of your capital daily. With compounding, you would be up over $39 billion by the end of the 1000 days. You would have a small draw down once the turkey was finally butchered, but you would still be extremely wealthy because you used prudent risk management.

I don't think that anyone will argue the fact that people that puts themselves at risk of ruin are hoping for luck and living off of borrowed time. Eventually they'll blow up whenever they encounter a black swan event. But proper risk management can keep this from happening regardless of whether or not you're a day trader, swing trader, or long term investor.

 

[Amahrix]

Amahrix,

My username has simple in it for a reason.

The trade was not luck man. Now stop goofing around man and playing monkey ass around.

There is trade right there carefully planned and executed.

So what if the trade was luck or fooled by random noise? Who cares, just the make the money man and moved on with it

Assuming you have a statistical expectation of zero or negative (usually it’s negative), or assuming your carrying the risk of ruin... your expected value is not positive, therefore, on your path to guaranteed financial ruin (via law of large numbers) if you pick up some profits, don’t consider yourself “skilled”, consider yourself lucky, because Mr. Market is going to call that loan back with interest & penalties when you realize you’ve hit a dead end.

This is why I’m screaming in this forum. People are headed to financial ruin, they pick up profits, they credit their skills and tools foolishly, then hit ruin. Those profits they experienced... pure chance.

Edit: So, answer me now, are you a gambler or a trader? Makes sense?!

 

[Amahrix]

A lot of you believe your traders when really you’re gamblers. Some more sophisticated than others, but nevertheless, gamblers.

 

[bone]

I realized why you may never accept what’s being proposed here or want anyone else to, you’d lose clients. You’re disqualified from this discussion going forward in my eyes.

LMAO. You truly don’t understand actual trading.

I GAIN clients because of the fact that for most mere mortals flat price day trading is so risky and unreliable.

If you knew anything about actual trading you’d understand that as a spread trader I’m ALWAYS HEDGED. On a currency adjusted volatility basis. Five Year Notes don’t fall of a cliff for twenty points while Ten Year Notes sit unchanged.

 

[Amahrix]

I want to expand on a point I made earlier in regards to the turkey scenario. Imagine you were able to bet daily with even odds whether or not a turkey was going to be butchered. You bet daily that it won't be butchered because that's the most likely outcome. You start with $100, and you bet 2% of your capital daily. With compounding, you would be up over $39 billion by the end of the 1000 days. You would have a small draw down once the turkey was finally butchered, but you would still be extremely wealthy because you used prudent risk management.

I don't think that anyone will argue the fact that people that puts themselves at risk of ruin are hoping for luck and living off of borrowed time. Eventually they'll blow up whenever they encounter a black swan event. But proper risk management can keep this from happening regardless of whether or not you're a day trader, swing trader, or long term investor.

It need not be a black swan event, it can simply be a strategy that carries a negative statistical expectation. Law of large numbers kicks in and they begin experiencing losses. The luck from law of small numbers goes away and the real mathematical properties of the strategy begins to emerge and then they realize... it ain’t good after all.

 

[Amahrix]

LMAO. You truly don’t understand actual trading.

I GAIN clients because of the fact that for most mere mortals flat price day trading is so risky and unreliable.

If you knew anything about actual trading you’d understand that as a spread trader I’m ALWAYS HEDGED. On a currency adjusted volatility basis. Five Year Notes don’t fall of a cliff for twenty points while Ten Year Notes sit unchanged.

“Want to be a Proprietary Futures/Swaps Trader without risking your own personal capital?”

The first thing you have clients do is paper trade, which teaches them NOTHING. One must be under threat to adapt to the environment.

“Nassim Taleb shares an example that comes from his friend and trading partner, Mark Spitznagel. "A martial version of the ludic fallacy: organized competitive fighting trains the athlete to focus on the game and, in order not to dissipate his concentration, to ignore the possibility of what is not specifically allowed by the rules, such as kicks to the groin, a surprise knife, et cetera. So those who win gold medal might be precisely those who will be most vulnerable in real life."[2]”

In my opinion, you sell garbage, give traders false confidence, and collect $$ to gamble(hopefully trade) yourself.

I don’t know enough about your personal strategy to comment further.

I hope I’m wrong, nevertheless, I’m excited for your response.

 

[Overnight]

...

You sell garbage, give traders false confidence, and collect $$ to gamble(hopefully trade) yourself. You sleep well at night?

I don’t know enough about your personal strategy to comment further.

...

I made my first 10K in real trading doing what he does, but in a real round-about white-trash way, back in Jan to March 2017. Was trading intra-market calendar spreads to mitigate overnight margins. And I didn't even know he existed. Hell, I think that was before I was on this forum. What bone does is keen. You should heed his spread strats. It is risk mitigation at it's finest.

 

[Amahrix]

I made my first 10K in real trading doing what he does, but in a real round-about white-trash way, back in Jan to March 2017. Was trading intra-market calendar spreads to mitigate overnight margins. And I didn't even know he existed. Hell, I think that was before I was on this forum. What bone does is keen. You should heed his spread strats. It is risk mitigation at it's finest.

Looks like it works wonders, you stopped why?

 

[Amahrix]

Heuristic: If someone truly has an edge, said individual would never disclose such edge to anyone else as this would nullify such edge.

The last thing a trader would do is disclose it, let alone to a forum.

This is why Dalio, Simons, et al have black boxes, not see through boxes. Medallion will lose all its edge if someone sees through. This ain’t a charity. This is Wall St.

You see???? This is a market. Buy low, sell high. You don’t tell others what’s cheap as a trader, they’ll begin buying, others take notice, edge goes away. Someone in possession of a true statistically positive trading strategy with no risk of run, would keep his mouth shut.

Useful heuristic to filter BS-vendors.