Sorry I mistyped earlier. ZIV, which still trades I should have posted, not XIV.
A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
Ahh. Don't know what ZIV is.
I don’t know if you caught my last edit or not but backtesting should only be used to reject a strategy, not to predict its success.
Assuming you lived in the era prior to the observance of a black swan(literally):
Say I had a strategy that wins money when I observe a white swan and I lose everything and more when I observe any other colored swan but white.
If I back test it, I can see that I would’ve won many times so I naively conclude that this strategy will be successful
And so I deploy it...only to find out one day... that a black swan exists.......
You see what I’m saying?
Machine Learning may be headed in the right direction so long as it doesn’t predict events but sets of rules, at different scales. You see? Sets of rules... at different scales.... (disclaimer: I am not a ML/DL expert)
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LOL please quote something other than regurgitated pablum from Nassim Taleb.
Endeavor to write a post without mentioning “swan” or “tail”.
Isn't it funny all this Black Swan nonsense about a topic supposedly directed at day traders. And somewhat also for hedging?
That is the parlance of short and long term swing traders and investors. Those of us who trade tick by tick and use stops are not the ones getting caught. Sure it can happen but not anywhere near those who hold positions beyond minutes/hours and definitely beyond that day's close.
That is the parlance of short and long term swing traders and investors. Those of us who trade tick by tick and use stops are not the ones getting caught. Sure it can happen but not anywhere near those who hold positions beyond minutes/hours and definitely beyond that day's close.
I’ll be perfectly frank - your technical understanding of Taleb with respect to randomness and chance as it relates to financial markets is not correct.
Please enlighten me. All I see when I see “Bone” is Ad Hominem Fallacy being committed as well as posts with no substance. Just all talk.
Only investors are extremely fearful about black swan thing.
Day traders love black AND white swans
In fact day traders love bulls and bears and white swans and black swans
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Max... no they’re not. All an investor needs to do is buy protection. And if the protection is too costly, the investor should not take the investment.
Would you buy a car if you couldn’t afford the car insurance?
Please max, please, watch this video then come back and further comment. You see?! —> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-05-12/nassim-taleb-on-the-importance-of-probability