Oh I thought it was you who didn’t know what you were talking about. Sorry my mistake sonny.
Ok it is still a white swan event but....those feathers are starting to turn gray..
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A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
Oh I thought it was you who didn’t know what you were talking about. Sorry my mistake sonny.
Ok it is still a white swan event but....those feathers are starting to turn gray..
The human trader does not have complete, all-encompassing knowledge of what is going on. From our perspective, it is randomness. (incomplete information!)
IDIOT! Are you that f*cking stupid?! Get your head outta Mr. Market's arse. You can't see in there!
Problem is YOU can’t see nor read the market. Again wrong definition. You getting mad yet? Seeing red? Now calm down. Try hard. You might make it to be a winner one day like Mr T but it will be extremely hard pulling that head out of the ground. I think it is stuck.
Volpri is the textbook definition of an epistemically arrogant individual. A person who takes his knowledge tooooo seriously. An imbecile.
Don't fault the "trader" for being honest.
Can't be any more obvious from this topic that a Apple daily chart probably does tell them nothing.
Well I suppose it takes one to “know one” epistemically. Birds of a feather flock together. You might have just spoken a correct definition...finally! Look in the mirror sonny.
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Just two I found - neither of which mention patterns. I generally bypass the first hit and in this case it is newb-land Investopedia
Wikipedia which is only slightly better
In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
or
from Technical Analysis A to Z
The term "technical analysis" is a complicated-sounding name for a very basic approach to investing. Simply put, technical analysis is the study of prices, with charts being the primary tool, to make better investments
Wikipedia which is only slightly better
In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
or
from Technical Analysis A to Z
The term "technical analysis" is a complicated-sounding name for a very basic approach to investing. Simply put, technical analysis is the study of prices, with charts being the primary tool, to make better investments
You'll always have incomplete information, therefore you're always dealing with some sort of randomness and subsequently, a degree unpredictability, higher unpredictability on shorter time frames because they contain more randomness than longer time frames.
Nevertheless, longer time frames still contain randomness within them just not as much as shorter time frames but they still do.
This is why we cannot look at all the data of the past and still predict the future because black swans of course.
No amount of observations of white swans can confirm that black swans do not exist.
Now look at this, if you observe all the data in the past, we see that we cannot predict the future with precision AND we especially cannot predict it where it matters (high impact).. dubbed "the black swan".
Now you're trying to sell me the idea that telling me you're observing 15-30-45-1hr-3hr data and can predict... when if we observed ALL DATA we still couldn't predict with precision...
You're fooling yourselves.
Nevertheless, longer time frames still contain randomness within them just not as much as shorter time frames but they still do.
This is why we cannot look at all the data of the past and still predict the future because black swans of course.
No amount of observations of white swans can confirm that black swans do not exist.
Now look at this, if you observe all the data in the past, we see that we cannot predict the future with precision AND we especially cannot predict it where it matters (high impact).. dubbed "the black swan".
Now you're trying to sell me the idea that telling me you're observing 15-30-45-1hr-3hr data and can predict... when if we observed ALL DATA we still couldn't predict with precision...
You're fooling yourselves.
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You'll always have incomplete information, therefore you're always dealing with some sort of randomness and subsequently, a degree unpredictability, higher unpredictability on shorter time frames because they contain more randomness than longer time frames.
Nevertheless, longer time frames still contain randomness within them just not as much as shorter time frames but they still do.
This is why we cannot look at all the data of the past and still predict the future because black swans of course.
Observing 1,000 white swans does not deny the existence of black swans. What Daytrading TA chartists are committing is inductive reasoning and we know that relying on a strategy that embeds itself with only inductive reasoning is not a robust strategy over the long term.
Now look at this, if you observe all the data in the past, we see that we cannot predict the future with precision AND we especially cannot predict it where it matters (high impact).. dubbed "the black swan".
Now you're trying to sell me the idea that telling me you're observing 15-30-45-1hr-3hr data and can predict... when if we observed ALL DATA we still couldn't predict with precision...
You're fooling yourselves.
This is all empirically true. I dare you to challenge it.
Except it isn't random.
Big fish swallows small fish all the time. But not all small fish gets swallowed and some big fish get swallowed by bigger yet fish.
Trading is not about avoiding random events. It is about preparing for them as much as you can and dealing with the consequences whatever should arise from them.