A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

Black swan events: well when the bastard flies in any good discretionary trader will see it and know exactly what to do. It is the long term trend trader who will get plastered.

You clearly do not know what a black swan is. It’s very nature is that no one “sees it” ahead. A good discretionary trader will always have a hedge active so when if/it occurs, he would be prepared for it. A good trader hedges risk of ruin, which is what a black swan brings. The weak die, the strong survive.

A black swan is an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.

 

[Amahrix]

Strawmanners..my point is it is more luck than you think, not all luck, but there is a possibility it is all luck too.

Look at Jim Simons 2019 interview, he vindicates me from 17 minutes onward.. attributes his 12x return on fundamental analysis driven fund directly to luck. Attributes success of medallion fund partly to luck. Didn’t use “technical analysis” etc. Oh, he’s just beeinnnggg humble? lol

Wake tf up and put some respect on your money. Luck has more to do with things than you think.

Note: Whether that luck is gifted upon you by God or by random chance is a different discussion, in either case, from the perspective of the human being, it is luck. Fortune favored you or didn’t favor you and that’s partly because of your luck. No success is dependent on skill alone. But some professions are more dependent on skill than luck, such as dentistry. Some professions, not so much.

 

[Amahrix]

@Amahrix

You are definitely very well read and educated.
What do you do for a living?

I take my chances while hedging risk of ruin, for a living. Luck comes around here and there, grants me some fortune and I repeat. (Learning to take my chances while hedging risk of ruin, is my “skill”)

 

[volpri]

You clearly do not know what a black swan is. It’s very nature is that no one “sees it” ahead. A good discretionary trader will always have a hedge active so when if/it occurs, he would be prepared for it. A good trader hedges risk of ruin, which is what a black swan brings. The weak die, the strong survive.

A black swan is an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.

I never said I’d see it ahead. You building a strawman. ROFLMAO. WHEN the black swan bastard flys in then I will know it and will know what to do. The long term investors will have many sleepless nights and crappy underwear. THEY are the ones at risk not the good skillful intraday trader. It won’t have a catastrophic impact on me. I deem such unknowable events as a grand opportunity to clean house whenever the bastard shows up. I can reverse on a dime cause I am an intraday trader AND if I am already in I will just let the black swan fly and carry me along. Not that I can stop it anyways! LOL. MY HEDGE is my ability to turn faster than crap goes through a goose. If a long term trader is loaded up across several portfolio’s good luck getting off the back of the black swan. Millions will be trying at the same time. Yeah you are right about ONE thing. The weak die, the strong survive. Many, if not most long term trend traders will go the way of the grave yard cause most don’t hedge. You know this to be so.

 

[wrbtrader]

I don’t have any connection with Taleb. Never spoke to him, seen him, etc.

Amahrix, the name, was generated randomly in the video game World of Warcraft when I clicked “randomize” and the game create the username. This was manyyyy years ago, perhaps a decade ago. You’re looking too deep into things just like any day trading chartist would.

I thought we were cool!.. it’s cool. No worries.

Yes, I did see the World of Warcraft user name ( a post showed 7 years ago). Also, if you say you have no connection to Taleb...I believe you although its not an issue if you did.

Yes, I did look deep into things when I saw you use the same words as Taleb used when he was attacking someone while you've recommend to read the book by Taleb many times in this thread.

By the way, it has nothing to do with what a day trading chartist would do...not sure why you would make such a flawed connection. I would have done the same if I had never heard of day trading, TA or the Wall Street as you would have seen me do many other times in discussions in the health & fitness threads, chit chat threads, other forums about landscaping, other forums about photography, other forums about sports...

If I see someone posting (writing) like someone else...I will ask them what is their connection.

Nothing to do with being a day trading chartist as you stated.

Story - In grade 6 the teacher had a guest speaker to initiate show & tell. Her guest was a person that communicated via sign language. I asked a ton of questions (e.g. Is sign language the same in different languges ?...Do you use different facial expressions when signing to someone in a different culture ?).

I was curious just like any kid would be considering I'm trilingual. I remember the teacher saying the following...

You're looking to deep into things.

She did not follow up with a comment like "You’re looking too deep into things just like any day trading chartist would".

My point, don't take my queries about the similarities you two have (e.g. word usage, religion, specific book, dismissing social science, etc) to personal. Its just my nature to look closely at something like that.

Yet, as you have recommended to others to read Taleb's book. I would recommend you read Steven Pinker books Enlightenment Now and The Language Instinct.

wrbtrader

 

[Amahrix]

By the way, it has nothing to do with what a day trading chartist would do...not sure why you would make such a flawed connection. I would have done the same if I had never heard of day trading, TA or the Wall Street as you would have seen me do many other times in discussions in the health & fitness threads, chit chat threads, other forums about landscaping, other forums about photography, other forums about sports...

If I see someone posting (writing) like someone else...I will ask them what is their connection.

Nothing to do with being a day trading chartist as you stated.

Lol, you’re right. Fair.

 

[volpri]

My point, don't take my queries about the similarities you two have to personal. Its just my nature to look into something when something is recommended multiple times. Yet, as you have recommended to others to read Taleb's book. I would recommend you read Steven Pinker books Enlightenment Now and The Language Instinct.

wrbtrader

Waste of time..He ain’t gonna read it. He is a Taleb disciple through and through apparently without the ability to day trade so what he can’t APPARENTLY achieve he rails on. He ain’t gonna budge one iota. His mind is made up. Guess what I ain’t budging either! ROFLMAO..ABSOLUTELY HILARIOUS.

 

[Amahrix]

I never said I’d see it ahead.

I also never said you(volpri) would not see it ahead, now did I?! Go read it again. Stop getting emotional ROFLMAOROFLMAO. (How old are you? Were you an avid AIM user back in the day, just wondering).

I know you’d know what to do when a black swan occurs, why? Because it is major signal, carries heavy news, prediction becomes easier(but still VERY difficult) after such a signal occurs.

The problem is when there is no signal, you start seeing things, such as day traders who day traded Apple today with their support and resistance and all their other “tools”.

Most of the time, all you’re seeing is noise when daytrading.

 

[Amahrix]

Waste of time..He ain’t gonna read it. He is a Taleb disciple through and through apparently without the ability to day trade so what he can’t APPARENTLY achieve he rails on. He ain’t gonna budge one iota. His mind is made up. Guess what I ain’t budging either! ROFLMAO..ABSOLUTELY HILARIOUS.

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Actually I am going to read it.. shut your a** up. I’m not delusional. I read what I don’t agree with also not only with what I agree with. I’ve only heard bad about Pinker so this is precisely why I want to go see for myself.

 

[volpri]

I also never said you(volpri) would not see it ahead, now did I?! Go read it again. Stop getting emotional ROFLMAOROFLMAO. (How old are you? Were you an avid AIM user back in the day, just wondering).

I know you’d know what to do when a black swan occurs, why? Because it is major signal, carries heavy news, prediction becomes easier after such a signal occurs.

The problem is when there is no signal, you start seeing things, such as day traders who day traded Apple today with their support and resistance and all their other “tools”.

Probably older than you sonny boy.